Super Bowl LV: Predicting the Winner – Kansas City Chiefs

Nobody wants to do it. We’re talking about the G.O.A.T Tom Brady in his 10th Super Bowl appearance against the young, and perhaps, future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes. I get it. Don’t count out Tom Brady to win another championship. The problem is, this isn’t ol’ Tom terrific and the New England Patriots of old. No, this year it’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s a unique situation for sure. It’s the first time in the Super Bowl era that the home team is playing in its stadium, and still, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored in the point spread by three. The over/under is at 56.5. Does any of this matter? In my opinion, not really.

NUMBERS TELL A STORY

Let’s take a look at the facts. Numbers tell a story and trend, which more times than not, reveals the outcome. If we’re going on this season alone, look no further than Week 12 when the Chiefs defeated the Bucs 27-24. Brady threw for 345 yards (27-for-41 passing) and three touchdowns with two interceptions. Mahomes threw for 462 yards (37-for-49) and three scores. Kansas City jumped out to an early 17-0 lead and led 27-10 midway through the third quarter before the Bucs late comeback attempt. This was the last loss of the regular season for Tampa Bay, which carries a seven-game winning streak.

In this year’s Chiefs playoff run Mahomes has only been sacked once. He has 580 passing yards and four touchdowns in victories against the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. Compare to that to the 43-year-old QB who hasn’t been his best this postseason. In wins against the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints, and Green Bay Packers his completion percentage was never higher than 55.56 percent. In that stretch, he has seven TD passes and three interceptions while taking a combined five sacks.

GIVE AND TAKE

Both teams are capable of making comebacks, and the game could very well come down to whom has the ball last. Mahomes, according to EliasSports, has won an NFL-QB record six straight games when trailing by double digits, including the playoffs— three of those come this season against the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Atlanta Falcons. Brady is the king of fourth-quarter comebacks with an NFL record 39.

CHIEFS

Many likely forget the way the Chiefs opened the playoffs last year, trailing 21-0 against the Houston Texas in the first quarter of the AFC Divisional Round before scoring 28 points in the second in route to a 51-31 victory. Mahomes was sacked five times and managed to finish with 321 yards and five touchdowns. In the next round against Tennesse, Mahomes was sacked three times before advancing to the Super Bowl to face the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs trailed 20-10 going into the final quarter and Mahomes led a 21-0 fourth-quarter advantage to win his first Lombardi trophy.

WHO DO YOU LOVE?

The bottom line is whom do you trust? Mahomes has an array of offensive weapons to choose from in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Le’Veon Bell just to name a few. Brady will look to distribute the ball to unproven players with no Super Bowl experience in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Leonard Fournette. He does have tight end, Rob Gronkowski, as a key weapon.

DEFENSE

The Buccaneers looked solid when Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combined for five sacks in the NFC championship game but Mahomes will present more of a challenge because of his mobility. The Chiefs held their own this season, despite allowing multiple 400-yard games of offense, ranking 10th in the league.

FINAL RESULT

What does this all add up to? A race to 28 points, and I believe we have a winner. Beyond that, it’s who has the ball last. Sayonara Tom. Hello Mahomes and the new Chiefs dynasty.

Do you believe that the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl LV? Leave a comment below.

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