FanDuel NFL Week 14: In-Depth Player Pool With Expert Analysis
Week 13 was frustrating because the RBs that I keyed in on just flat underperformed. I did have the low owned Raiders stack with QB Derek Carr (32.74 fantasy points) and TE Darren Waller (38.5), who combined 71.2 points. That lineup cashed. My others did not. In large part because I had full exposure to RB Austin Ekeler, who scored just 8.8 points. This week my FanDuel lineups will have more diversification at the RB position.
With 13 games on the FanDuel Main Slate, more players will suppress ownership across the board. There are multiple value WRs in great matchups that should see significant targets. Most will be low owned, and some could be 2% or less because they are in non-marquee games. If you hit on one of these WRs, then you rocket up the standings. This article is a bit longer than usual because I want exposure to as many of these WRs as possible and will be playing a couple more lineups than usual.
Research, The Mikes
As regular readers of my column, you will not only see my research of stats but the analysis of some of the best experts in the industry (If you can’t beat them, join and credit them). Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros and Mike Woellert of 4for4 are quoted frequently.
Tagliere’s weekly column, The Primer, is the most compressive look at Fantasy Football. It’s typically about 20,000 words and had well thought out information on every fantasy-relevant (and not so relevant) player. Tagliere takes into account defensive injures, schemes, matchups, and historical numbers. I admire Tagliere’s work. This article is somewhat modeled after The Primer but reduced to only the players I’m using.
Woellert is an expert at WR vs CB matchups. He continually finds low owned undervalued players that have huge weeks. When spending up at WR, it’s great to know they are in advantageous situations. As the season progresses, patterns emerge, and it becomes clear which CBs should be exploited. Our goal will be to play WRs covered by CBs, who average near or above 2.0 fantasy points per target.
While my articles give you free exposure to a sliver of the information, at FantasyPros and 4for4, I would recommend subscribing to help with your research.
Week 14 FanDuel Player Pool
Aaron Rodgers (GB, $8,500) appeared to have a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed a 10th best 17.09 fantasy points a game to QBs. Rodgers did what Rodgers does, and completed 25 of 34 passes for 295 yards and threw for three TDs in route to scoring 23.5 fantasy points. The next victim up is the Lions, who have allowed a seventh-most 20.09 fantasy points a game to QBs. One should expect Rodgers to keep on rolling.
Russell Wilson (SEA, $9,000) has had a tough four-game stretch where he has averaged just 15.61 points, with his best performance coming against the Cardinals in Week 11 at 20.08 points. Wilson has not been the same QB that seemingly scored 30 points every week to start the season. If there is one team that could Wilson back on track, it’s the winless Jets who just allowed Derrick Carr (LV, $7,100) to score 32.74 points against them.
Justin Herbert (LAC, $8,300) had the worst performance of his young career last week against the Patriots. He completed 26 of 53 passes for 209 yards and two INTs to score just 6.36 points. The performance was not dissimilar to what Derek Carr had in Week 12 against the Falcons when he scored 1.6 points. In last week’s column, I stressed the importance of not having a recency bias, and Carr went off against the Jets. Herbert is in a similar situation this week against the Falcons, who have allowed a second-most 23.72 fantasy points a game to QBs. In a full slate, Herbert and the Bolts may be overlooked after last week. Take advantage of that!
Deshaun Watson (HOU, $8,000) has a relatively tough matchup against the Bears, who are in the top third against QB with a 17.09 fantasy points allowed average. However, Watson has two cheap WRs that performed well last week and are in good matchups to perform again this week. The low price of a Houston stacks allows for studs elsewhere in a lineup build.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN, $7,900) had his second-best fantasy performance of the season last week against the Browns. He completed 29 of 45 passes for a season-high 389 yards and three TDs with one INT to score 28.59 fantasy points. Tannehill is likely to continue to air it out against the Jaguars, who have allowed a third-most 21.99 fantasy points a game to QBs.
Tom Brady (TB, $7,800) has thrown 38 to 45 pass attempts in each of the last six games. His fantasy production has varied dramatically. The lowest came against the Saints in Week 10 when he scored a miserable 5.34 points. Brady also scored just 14.64 points against the Rams in Week 12. He also scored 36.86 points against the Raiders in Week 8 and 31.84 points against the Panthers in Week 11. There are only a handful of QBs that provides performances above 30 points on a somewhat regular basis, and Brady is still one of them. When Brady scores 30 or more, it typically comes from scoring four or more TDs. In the two recent high-performing games, Brady threw for a combined seven TDs and ran for one with four total scores in both games. While the Vikings are in the middle of the pack against QBs at 18.07 fantasy points a game, they have allowed the fifth-most passing TDs at 24.
Kirk Cousins (MIN, $7,500) posted his third 300-yard performance in a row last week when he completed 28 of 43 passes for 305 yards and three TDs with one INT. He also rushed three times for 12 yards to score 22.4 points. Cousins will likely need to continue to air it out against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has the fifth-best fantasy run defense has allowed just 19.52 fantasy points a game to RBs. While Dalvin Cook ($10,200) is certainly capable of scoring 20 points against the Bucs, Cousins will have to do his part for the Vikings to win. The Bucs are middle of the pack against QBs, having allowed an average of 18.33 fantasy points a game to the position. Cousins has two great WRs in good CBs matchups in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Based on matchups, it is far more likely the Vikings will move the ball through the air than on the ground.
Davante Adams (GB, $9,600) is matchup proof. This week Adams has a matchup that he should easily exploit. Adams should be covered by Jeff Okudah, who has allowed a 75.6% catch rate and 2.08 fantasy points per target. “The all-time record for Packers receivers in a single season is 1,519 yards,” wrote Tagliere. “Adams is currently on pace for 1,440 yards… while missing two full games and a half of another. That’s not to mention the 11 touchdowns he’s scored in the last seven games. He’s playing on another level and is about to go against a secondary that is missing their top two cornerbacks.”
Allen Lazard (GB, $5,800) also has a great matchup. Lazard should be covered by CB Justin Coleman, who has allowed a 75% catch rate and 1.94 fantasy points per target. The concern with Adams is that he has been dealing with a sore abdomen that has limited his reaps, so his ceiling may be capped.
Tyreek Hill (KC, $9,000) has a rather difficult CB matchup on the outside or when he moves into the slot. On the right side, Hill should be covered by Xavien Howard, who has allowed a 42.6% catch rate and 1.41 fantasy points per target. When Hill moves into the slot, Nik Needham should cover him, who has allowed a 56.8% catch rate and 1.38 fantasy points per target.
Demarcus Robinson (KC, $5,200) has the best CB matchup of the Chiefs WRs. Robinson should be covered by CB Byron Jones, who has allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 1.76 fantasy points per target. It’s a considerable risk, but I’m going to pass on Hill in my Chiefs stack and use Robinson and TE Travis Kelce (KC, $8,200), who will likely be yet again the top-performing TE on the slate. It’s almost impossible to build a balanced lineup with decent RBs with a Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack. I can achieve diversity in my lineup build by saving money with a WR who has a better matchup.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA, $8,500) has one of the best matchups on the slate and the apparent best among elite WRs. Metcalf should be covered by Jets undrafted rookie CB Lamar Jackson who has a 67.6% catch rate and a very high 2.63 fantasy points per target. “He’s been murdered in coverage, allowing 24-of-34 passing for 381 yards and five touchdowns,” wrote Tagliere. At $1,100 cheaper than DeVante Adams, I’m more interested in having multiple Metcalf shares than Adams.
Keenan Allen (LAC, $8,500) still managed 11 targets in the Chargers debacle last week. He only caught five passes for 48 yards. It was a game to be forgotten for the Bolts all the way around. Allen, the target hog, could rack up the points this week as he should be covered by Falcons Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 58.3% target rate and 1.91 fantasy points per target. “We typically don’t need much justification to play Keenan Allen,” wrote Woellert. “Allen has 10 or more targets in three-straight games and six of his last seven. He’s dominating the target share, even with Austin Ekeler back in the fold. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted points to the receiver position while allowing the fourth-most total yards and 12 TDs to slot receivers. Since Week 5, Oliver has spent most of his coverage snaps in the slot, so he should be busy on Allen this week.”
Jaylen Guyton (LAC, $4,900) is coming off a season-high seven targets and has the best matchup of Chargers WRs. Guyton should be covered by CB A.J. Terrell, who has allowed 66.7% and 2.10 fantasy points per target. Guyton will likely be very low owned and has had two long scores of over 70 yards this season so that he could be a gem of a play. For a Chargers four-pack, I prefer Herbert/Allen/RB Austin Ekeler/TE Hunter Henry. Guyton could be a great cheap option in another expensive stack, such as the Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks, or Vikings.
Chris Godwin (TB, $7,800) has the best CB matchup of three excellent matchups for the Bucs WRs. Goodwin should be covered by Vikings CB Jeff Gladney, who has allowed 64.5% and 2.05 fantasy points per target. Godwin has seen 19 targets in the last two games, including catching eight of nine for a season-high 97 yards against the Chiefs in Week 12 before the Bucs bye. “They Bucs had the bye week to stew and marinate in their last loss,” wrote Woellert. “They should come out this week with something to prove and will target the Vikings’ weak secondary. Godwin, hopefully, used the bye week to rest up and heal from his injuries, as he’s been a bit dinged,” wrote Woellert. “Since returning from missing Week 8, Godwin has 31 targets and has one game of fewer than 50 yards. He had a follow-up procedure to have pins removed from his finger, so he’s missing practice, but signs are pointing to him playing. I really hope he suits up against Jeff Gladney. Gladney has allowed six scores and has allowed the most yards in coverage among cornerbacks, resulting in just over two fantasy points per target.”
Mike Evans (TB, $7,300) and Antonio Brown (TB, $6,500) also have good CB matchups. Evans should be covered by CB Cameron Dantzler, who has allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 1.75 fantasy points per target. Brown should be covered by CB Kris Boyd, who has allowed a 75.8% catch rate and 1.76 fantasy points per target. Evans has been dealing with a sore hamstring and missed practice on Thursday. That makes Brown the preferable addition for a reasonably priced stack of Brady/Godwin/Brown at $22,100.
Justin Jefferson (MIN, $7,800) and Adam Thielen (MIN, $7,500) virtually now share the role of WR 1 for the Vikings, with Jefferson slightly edging out Thielen in recent weeks. Over the last two games, Jefferson has caught 16 of 25 targets for 191 yards and three TDs. Thielen has caught 16 of 22 targets for 178 yards and three TDs. Both have good matchups against the Bucs. Jefferson should be covered by CB Jamel Dean, who has allowed a 55.6% catch rate and 1.86 fantasy points per target. Thielen should be covered by CB Carlton Davis, who has allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 1.71 fantasy points per target. Jefferson gets the slight edge, but if you need to save $300 in a build, Thielen is a fine choice. I plan to use them both with Cousins, but not use RB Dalvin Cook.
Corey Davis (TEN, $6,800) arguably has the best CB matchup on the Main Slate. Davis should be covered by Jaguars CB Luq Barcoo, who has allowed a 69.2% catch rate and 2.68 fantasy points per target. A.J. Brown ($8,000) is dealing with an ankle injury and missed practice on Thursday. Brown does not carry an injury status, so he should play. At less than 100%, Brown could benefit Davis as Brown will divert extra attention away from Davis. I like the cheap stack of Tannehill/Davis to afford RB Derrick Henry and complete the lineup with other quality plays.
Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,500) has the best possible CB matchup on the slate, albeit the stats are limited. Broncos CB Duke Dawson Jr. has allowed two receptions in three targets for 44 yards and a TD in 50 coverage snaps, according to Woellert. That has resulted in league-worst 4.13 fantasy points per target. Anderson frequently receives in the range of seven to 12 targets. This game will likely not have much attention from DFS players, so Anderson should be relatively low owned and is in an excellent position to produce.
Keke Coutee (HOU, $5,600) and Chad Hansen (HOU, $5,100) are two very low priced WRs to stack with Deshaun Watson. The duo is both in plus matchups and likely to see a fair amount of the targets with Will Fuller out (PED) and Brandin Cooks ($6,900) limited this week with a foot injury. Against the Colts last week, Hansen was called up off the practice squad and caught five of seven targets for 101 yards while Coutee caught eight of nine targets for 141 yards. Hansen should be covered by CHI CB Jaylon Johnson, who has allowed a 50% catch rate and 1.79 fantasy points per target. Coutee should be covered by CB Buster Skrine, who has allowed a 75% catch rate and 2.07 fantasy points per target. “Skrine has struggled in coverage over the last few seasons, and this season hasn’t been any different,” wrote Woellert. “Skrine has been targeted 19 times over the last three weeks and is the opposing QBs target corner on nearly 15% of their throws and have 125.9 QBR when throwing his way.”
Weather does create some concerns for this game as the game-time temperature is forecast for 31 digress. “We haven’t seen Watson play in a game with sub-40 degree weather during his five-year career,” according to Tagliere. Nevertheless, that’s not terribly cold. Watson can also score points on the ground. The stack of Watson/Coutee/Hanson only cost $18,700. That allows for two top RBs and top WR like Metcalf or Allen. For this stack to pay off, you need Watson to have a decent game with either Coutee or Hansen having a similar performance as last week that also includes a TD.
Christian Kirk (ARI, $5,500) has a great matchup with Giants CB Isaac Yiadom. “Kirk is leading the receiving group in average depth of target (aDOT) at 13.0 and just behind DeAndre Hopkins for the market share of air yards,” wrote Woellert. “Yiadom is going to have a hard time keeping up with Kirk’s routes. James Bradberry should shadow Hopkins, so Kirk should run the majority of his routes on Yiadom. Yiadom is yielding 16.3 yards per catch and has been responsible for four scores, resulting in 2.3 fantasy points per target.”
Michael Gallup (DAL, $5,300) is another value WR that is in a great matchup. Gallup should be covered by CB LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 78.7% catch rate and 2.37 fantasy points per target. Gallup is coming off an 18.7 fantasy point performance against the Ravens where he caught seven of 11 targets for 86 yards and a TD. “After a relatively quiet two-week stretch, Gallup produced in a tough matchup against Baltimore,” wrote Woellert. “He took advantage of the soft coverage Anthony Averett provided and scored his TD off Marlon Humphrey. This week, he finds himself matched up with a soft secondary in Cincinnati. Since the bye week, Gallup has received 24 targets, converting 15 into receptions. He should be able to find the same success against LeShaun Sims this week. Opposing QBs have a QBR of 132.7 when targeting Sims, and he’s allowing a 92.7% deserved catch rate. He’s allowed the most yards in coverage among Cincinnati corners (445) and is allowing 2.4 fantasy points per target.”
Take a Side
Travis Kelce (KC, $8,200) has scored over 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Kelce has scored 211.96 fantasy points on the season. Raiders TE Darren Waller is the next closest at 146.20. Kelce faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed an eighth-fewest fantasy point to TEs at 9.65 points per game. The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most at 10.05, and Kelce scored 23.6 fantasy points against them on Sunday night. Kelce is worth the price, and you want exposure to him every week.
Robert Tonyan (GB $5,900) has been continuously one of the best value plays at TE. Tonyan has scored a fourth-most 124.80 fantasy points on the season and has a TD in three straight games. The Lions defense has been solid against TEs, having allowed a fifth-best 9.45 fantasy points a game to TEs. However, Rodgers and the Packers should have several trips to the red zone against Detroit, and that should provide a couple of opportunities for another score for Tonyan.
Hunter Henry (LAC, $5,600) has the best possible matchup for TEs in the Falcons, who have allowed a league-worst 15.77 fantasy points a game. Henry had a miserable performance last Sunday against the Patriots catching just one of two targets for five yards to score one point. “It was just the third time this year Henry didn’t see at least six targets, so feel free to consider it an outlier,” wrote Tagliere. “Like almost all other Chargers players, get him back into lineups and expect a big rebound. The Falcons had allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, which includes them resurrecting Jared Cook from the dead last week when he caught his first touchdown since Week 8. When you look at it from an efficiency standpoint, the Falcons have allowed the second-most PPR points per target (2.28) to tight ends, behind only the Jets. There have been seven tight ends who’ve finished with five-plus targets against the Falcons, and six of those tight ends finished as the TE11 or better. When you factor in their competition, the Falcons rank as the best matchup for tight ends in schedule-adjusted rank, allowing 26.5 percent more production than their opponents typically average. Get Henry back in lineups as a high-end TE1.”
Jonnu Smith (TEN, $5,400) should return this week after missing last Sunday with a sore knee. Smith faces the Jaguars, who have allowed an 11th most 13.20 fantasy points a game to TEs. Teammate TE Anthony Firkser ($5,100) will likely still be somewhat involved. For an extra $200 I prefer Hunter Henry, who shares very little of the TE targets over Jonnu Smith but will use Smith with Tannehill.
Derrick Henry (TEN, $9,600) is the top projected RB at both 4for4 (20.4 projected points) and FantasyPros (22.4) at an average of 21.4 points. While that only slightly above 2X, Henry has shown the ability to score more than 30 points with three or more TDs in a game. Henry will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed a fifth-most 27.89 fantasy points per game to RBs. “The Jaguars opponents have called a run play on 46.0 percent of plays, which ranks third-most in the league while the Titans themselves call a run play on 48.4 percent of their plays, the fourth-highest mark,” wrote Tagliere. “Because of that, the Jaguars have faced the third-most rushing attempts this season by running backs, as running backs have managed to rack up 24.8 carries per game against them. There are six teams who haven’t seen that many touches by running backs. Speaking of touches, the Jaguars have seen 371 of them (30.9 per game), the second-most in the NFL. The Titans
have a 30.5-point team-implied total this week, which is massive. It might seem too high until you hear their offense has hit 30-plus points in 7-of-12 games this year and are playing a Jaguars team who’s allowed 30-plus points in 6-of-12 games. There have been four running backs who’ve totaled 116-plus rushing yards against the Jaguars, and two of them didn’t even need 20 carries to get there. Over the last two weeks, they’ve allowed the Browns and Vikings running backs rack up 337 yards and a touchdown on 63 carries. We know how Henry dominates in December, right? If you forgot, here’s the chart on why he’s a locked and loaded elite RB1 for the fantasy playoffs.”
Aaron Jones (GB $8,700) is similar to Henry in that he can explode for a huge day where you must have exposure to him to have a chance of winning a GPP. Jones’s upside is involved more in the passing game than Henry, who is lucky to get a couple of targets a game. The downside to Jones is that he is sharing the workload with Jamaal Williams ($5,200). Jones has been capped at
18 touches over the last four games. That might be enough as Jones has the best possible matchup against the Lions, who have allowed a league-worst 32.89 fantasy points a game to RBs. Lions opponent RBs have found it easy to score on them as Detroit has allowed 16 rushing and seven receiving TDs to RBs, both a league-worst. “Touchdowns aren’t just easy to come by on the ground against them, as running backs have totaled a league-high seven touchdowns through the air. That’s 23 total touchdowns to running backs, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 17 of them. It’s not just the touchdowns, either. The Lions have allowed the second-most total yards per game to running backs, and when you factor in weighted opportunity, they allow the most fantasy points per opportunity. They’re 6.4 percent higher than any other team. The 7.10 yards per target they’ve allowed ranks second to only the Packers themselves. Start Jones as a superstar RB1 who destroyed this defense back in Week 2 for 45.6 PPR points, which was the second-biggest running back performance of the year. The Lions do face an average of 29.4 running back touches per game, so we should see Williams get into the 12-touch territory, which certainly has low-end RB3 value against this defense.”
James Robinson (JAC, $8,000) continues to see a real workhorse load of touches that have come on the ground and through the air. “Through two games with Glennon, Robinson hasn’t suffered at all,” wrote Tagliere. “In fact, he’s been every bit of the RB1 he’s been all season, totaling 51 touches, 267 total yards, and two touchdowns in those two games. Here’s a fun fact: Robinson hasn’t finished outside the top-24 running backs in 10 of his last 11 games while finishing as a top-12 running back in seven of them. The matchup against the Titans is nothing that should worry you, either. When you factor in weighted efficiency, the Titans rank as the fifth-worst defense against running backs on a per opportunity basis, behind only the Lions, Packers, Texans, and Raiders. Some will look and see they’ve allowed just 4.20 yards per carry, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They’ve had some easy competition this year, and that’s on full display when you look at their adjusted opponent rank. Running backs have averaged 13.1 percent more PPR points against the Titans than they do in all of their non-Titans matchups, which makes this the sixth-best matchup for them. There have been nine running backs who’ve finished as top-14 options against them, including RB17 or better for every running back with 18-plus touches, which is a number Robinson has hit in each of his last six games. In fact, there hasn’t been a game this year where they haven’t allowed at least 13.5 PPR points to at least one running back. Robinson should be played as a solid RB1 in this contest.”
Chris Carson (SEA, $7,700) offers a solid floor with a high ceiling. “The Seahawks will be looking to get back on track against the Jets, and don’t be surprised to see them go back to their old ways of pounding the rock,” wrote Tagliere. “It surely doesn’t hurt that they’re projected for 30.5 points, which should give Carson plenty of scoring opportunities. It’s fun to poke fun at the Jets team as a whole, but when you look at the weighted opportunity they’ve faced, they’ve been really good, allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points per opportunity, right behind the Buccaneers. The 4.09 yards per carry they’ve allowed is below the league average of 4.35, while the 4.97 yards per target is below the league average of 5.40. Despite facing the third-most red zone touches to running backs, the Jets have allowed just nine total touchdowns to them (ranks bottom-12). While the Jets have been tougher than most realize on running backs, they have allowed the most receptions (74) in the league to the position. All in all, they’ve seen a massive 28.8 touches per game, which is enough volume for running backs to make up for the inefficiency.”
Austin Ekeler (LAC, $7,500) followed up a 16 target game in Week 12 against the Bills with a nine target performance against the Patriots last week in a game where the Chargers got creamed. That makes Ekeler near game script proof in terms of still getting opportunities regardless of the score. The targets for Ekeler are likely to be closer to what they were in Week 12 against as the Chargers are likely to have success moving the ball against the Falcons. “Ekeler has seen 25 targets over the last two weeks, which is phenomenal for his floor, and they’re going to be necessary for this matchup,” wrote Tagliere. “Of the fantasy production, the Falcons have allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for just 25.1 percent of it. That’s the lowest percentage in the league. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.73) this year while allowing a rushing touchdown once every 43.2 carries. When you add everything up, they’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs, behind only the Saints and Buccaneers. You don’t think about the Falcons like that, do you? They’re extremely tough to produce on the ground against, but going back to Ekeler’s receiving role, the Falcons have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. They’ve allowed a solid 1.61 yards per target (8th-most) while also allowing four receiving touchdowns. Of the six running backs who’ve scored 15-plus PPR points against the Falcons, five of them caught at least five passes. Just how important is that receiving work? The Falcons have allowed four running backs to post 22-plus PPR points, and none of those running backs topped 89 rushing yards, while just one of them scored. This matchup suits Ekeler’s role extremely well, so start him as an RB1.”
David Montgomery (CHI, $6,600) has gone off for two consecutive weeks. In Week 12 against the Packers, Montgomery carried the ball only 11 times, but it was 103 yards. He also caught five of six targets for 40 yards and a TD to score 22.8 points. Against the Lions last week, Montgomery had 17 carries for 72 yards and two TDs and caught all four of his targets for 39 yards to score 25.1 points. While the Packers and the Lions are two great matchups for RBs to exploit, so is this week’s opponent in the Texans, who have allowed fourth-most 31.65 fantasy points a game to RBs. “The Texans allow a massive 102.4 PPR points per game to their opponents, and of the production allowed to skill-position players, running backs have accounted for 38.0 percent of it,” wrote Tagliere. “The only teams who’ve allowed a higher percentage are the Packers and Lions, the two teams that Montgomery just dismantled the last two weeks. Speaking of the Lions, they’re the only team in the league who’s allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Texans. Even better, the Texans have allowed most of that production on the ground, as they’ve faced a league-high 322 carries, allowed a league-high 1,677 rushing yards, and allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (15). Production can be had through the air, too, as they’ve allowed 6.64 yards per target (4th-most), but there are plus matchups throughout the secondary, which is why running backs haven’t seen tons of targets in the passing game. All in all, the 185.7 total yards per game the Texans have allowed to running backs is more than any other team in the league, including the Lions. They’ve faced 74 red zone touches by running backs, which ranks second to only the Lions, while Montgomery gets almost all those touches for the Bears. Montgomery deserves low-end RB1 consideration once again this week.”
Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG, $6,000) provides a solid floor with and a reasonably high ceiling at a low price. “I’m not sure if there’s been a more underappreciated running back than Gallman this year,” wrote Tagliere. “Despite having what might have been the toughest schedule since Week 7, Gallman has finished as a top-18 running back in all six games. That includes two matchups with the Eagles, one with the Bucs, and one with Washington. He’s coming off a season-high 135 rushing yards against the Seahawks, a team that had allowed just one running back to top 65 rushing yards all season. The Giants’ offensive line has been much better than most realize, as they’ve given their running backs the fourth-most yards before contact. When you add in the fact that the Cardinals are allowing the third-most yards before contact to ball carriers, it’s a great match for Gallman. They weren’t bad against running backs earlier in the year, but since losing interior lineman Corey Peters before Week 11, they’ve allowed 306 yards on 67 carries (4.57 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns. When running backs get targeted against the Cardinals, it also nets fantasy points, as they’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per target (6.48) to them. We’re at the point where Gallman is an auto-start high-end RB2, and this matchup does nothing to scare you.”
FanDuel Lineup Build
There isn’t an exact science in what a winning FanDuel lineup looks likes. However, they should tell a logical story, and certain elements are frequent.
When building a FanDuel lineup, I’ll try to check off most of the criteria:
1) QB stacked with a WR: This allows for a double score when the two connect.
2) Opposing WRs: A recent analysis of big tournament winners found a high percentage were constructed with two WRs in the same game from both teams. This combination makes sense because high scoring shootouts allow for opportunity on both sides of the ball. Based on matchups, some of our builds incorporate this.
3) RB stacked with Defense: There is a strong correlation between an RB performing well with their team’s defense. That’s something to factor in when choosing a reason, but in reality, it’s often the perceived best available defense with money left from the build that gets plugged in.
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