FanDuel NFL Week 13: In-Depth Player Pool With Expert Analysis
Welcome to December and Week 13. We are at the final push for the NFL regular season that has been marked by a crazy amount of news throughout each week that dramatically impact FanDuel lineup builds. Last Saturday was particularly newsy and impacted the decisions I had made while writing this column. The best move I made was investing heavily in Chargers RB Aaron Ekeler, who saw 25 total touches, including catching 11 passes. Unfortunately, I also went heavy on Vikings RB Dalvin Cook and away from Titans RB Derrick Henry despite singing Henry’s praises. That was a brutal mistake that led to a losing week.
I did have the stack of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (31.28 points) with Tyreek Hill (51.4) that scored a combined 82.68 points in my second-most expensive tournament. It cashed for $150 to get back more than half my entry fees.
Selecting QBs this week is difficult because elite QBs are in difficult matchups. My lineups will mix expensive QBs and value plays that will afford either RBs Henry or Cook.
Research, The Mikes
As regular readers of my column, you will not only see my research of stats but the analysis of some of the best experts in the industry (If you can’t beat them, join and credit them). Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros and Mike Woellert of 4for4 are quoted frequently.
Tagliere’s weekly column, The Primer, is the most compressive look at Fantasy Football. It’s typically about 20,000 words and had well thought out information on every fantasy-relevant (and not so relevant) player. Tagliere takes into account defensive injures, schemes, matchups, and historical numbers. I admire Tagliere’s work. This article is somewhat modeled after The Primer but reduced to only the players I’m using.
Woellert is an expert at WR vs CB matchups. He continually finds low owned undervalued players that have huge weeks. When spending up at WR, it’s great to know they are in advantageous situations. As the season progresses, patterns emerge, and it becomes clear which CBs should be exploited. Our goal will be to play WRs covered by CBs, who average near or above 2.0 fantasy points per target.
While my articles give you free exposure to a sliver of the information, at FantasyPros and 4for4, I would recommend subscribing to help with your research.
Week 12 FanDuel Player Pool
Russell Wilson ($9,000) is the most expensive QB on the slate. He is coming off a poor performance on Monday night against the Eagles when he scored just 14.4 points. It was Wilson’s third and arguably fourth disappointing performance in a row (@ BUF 24.1, @LAR 11.92, vs., AIR 20.08 and @ PHI 14.4) as you want a QB of Wilson’s price to score in the high 20s or more to justify his expense. Based on recent performances and the Seahawks are facing the Giants, who have allowed a fifth-fewest 15.9 fantasy points a game, I was going to fade Wilson this week. I changed my mind because even if Wilson just scored 20 points, he will likely be among the top QBs. Wilson is the top projected QB for the Main Slate at 22.4 points on 4for4. Tagliere has Wilson ranked as second overall and his write up on Wilson hugely influenced me that Wilson should be played. “It’s funny how quick people are to throw Wilson under the bus, saying he’s just a game manager,” wrote Tagliere. “Guys, he’s finished with 20-plus fantasy points in 9-of-11 games this year. He struggled against the Rams and Eagles, two of the better defenses in the league. Most would be surprised to learn that the Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (15.6) to quarterbacks, and that’s despite facing the 12th-most pass attempts. There have been six quarterbacks who’ve scored fewer than 14.0 fantasy points against them, which is the second-most in the NFL behind only the Rams. It hasn’t really been the competition, either, as quarterbacks have averaged 0.9 fewer fantasy points per game against the Giants than they have versus their season average, making it the 10th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup in football for quarterbacks. The reason for hope is the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking of the Giants, as they have them as the eighth-worst pass defense in the league. There have been four opponents who’ve averaged more than 8.35 yards per attempt against them. Still, the 3.85 percent touchdown-rate has kept quarterbacks in check overall, as has the fact that they’ve allowed just 12.2 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks this year, which stems from allowing just 1.68 yards per rushing attempt to them, the lowest mark in the NFL. Knowing there have been three quarterbacks (Carson Wentz, Nick Mullens, Alex Smith) have thrown for 300-plus yards against them, I’m not running away from this matchup. Start Wilson as the QB1; he’s been in 9-of-11 games this year.”
Aaron Rodgers ($8,500) appears to have a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed a 10th best 17.09 fantasy points a game to RBs. Philadelphia held QB Russell Wilson (SEA, $9,00) to just 14.4 points on Monday Night. Rodgers, on the other hand, has been very constant. Over the past six games, he has not scored below 22.74 points. That performance came two weeks ago against Colts eight best pass defense. Rodgers’ best performance in the last month in half came against the 49ers in Week 9 when he scored 28.9 points, and San Francisco has the 9th best defense against QBs going into that game. Against top 10 defense for fantasy points allowed to QBs, Rodgers has averaged 25.34 points. That’s a reasonable expectation for this week and about a 3X performance.
Justin Herbert (LAC, $7,900) is my most confident play of the week. Herbert is another upper-end QB in what appears to be a tough matchup. The Patriots have allowed a seventh-best 16.29 fantasy points a game. However, this is the same Patriots defense that in Week 11 allowed Watson to score 31.36 points. The Patriots also allowed Joe Flacco to score 21.48 points in Week 9. While the Patriots successfully held Kyler Murray (AIR, $8,700) to just 8.9 points last week, Murray is suffering from a sore shoulder that limited all aspects of his game. Until we see Murray’s shoulder is healthy, I’m avoiding him and his high price. In Week 10, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (not on the slate), who has also been greatly slowed with an ankle injury, had his best performance in the last four while playing the Patriots at 22.46 points. The Pats’ defense is simply not as good against QBs when they started the season. Herbert has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of the last six games while throwing 14 TDs and rushing for two more. Herbert has averaged 25.3 points in that span. That average is a fair expectation for this week, and Herbert has the upside to put up a Watson-like performance from two weeks ago.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN, $7,800) is only on my radar because he has the third-highest projected score of QBs on the slate at 20.9 at 4for4. Rodgers is the second-highest at just 21.3. Tannehill with WR A.J Brown ($8,200, 16.5 points projected) and Corey Davis ($6,100, 12.4) is projected to provide the top value cost of $22,100 and is projected to score 50.5 points for a 2.29 X return. I trust 4for4 as they are excellent in their projections, but this doesn’t entirely make sense. Neither Brown nor Davis are in particular good CB matchups. However, the Titans are likely to provide value because the Browns provide one of the better matchups for a quality QB on the Main Slate. Cleveland isn’t horrible in allowing fantasy points to QBs and WRs, but they are in the bottom third in both categories.
Kirk Cousins (MIN, $7,300) may be one of the Main Slate’s best value plays. Cousins has averaged 22.13 points over the last four games (vs. DET 20.8, @ CHI 18.58, vs. DAL 22.96, and vs. CAR 26.18). The 26.18 points against the Panthers was the second-best performance of the season for Cousins—his best game against the Falcons in Week 6 when he scored 26.18 points. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points a game to QBs at 23.72. Cousins face the Jaguars this week, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game at 21.99. A big part of Cousins’ success in the last month is the Vikings are throwing the ball a lot more. Over the last three games, Cousins has thrown 30-45 passes. In that span, Cousins has thrown for 913 yards and eight TDs with only one INT. Cousins appear locked for at least a 3X performance, and 4X is within reach.
Derek Carr (LV, $7,200) scored 1.6 fantasy points against a fantastic matchup in the Falcons. Nope, Carr didn’t get hurt. He was just that bad. Carr completed 22 of 35 passes for 215 yards with no INTs. He also threw an INT and lost three fumbles. Carr and the rest of the key playmakers for the Raiders is a classic case of trying hard not to have a recency bias that makes you miss out on an opportunity. I’m not saying that my confidence level is high on Carr and the Raiders offense, but I am saying they are worth a dart throw in the Sunday Million and perhaps a lower cost single-entry. The Raiders face the lowly Jets, who have the fourth-most fantasy points a game to QBs at 21.41, fifth-most to WRs at 41.22, and sixth-most to TEs at 14.89.
Davante Adams ($9,500) should be covered by Darrius Slay, who is no longer all that intimidating. Slay has allowed a 68.4% catch rate and 1.75 fantasy points per target. Allen Lazard ($5,600) makes for a nice addition to a Packers stack and has the best matchup of the Packers WRs. Lazard should be covered by Nickell Robey-Coleman, who has allowed a 77.3% catch rate and 2.04 fantasy points per target. “Since returning to action, Lazard’s contributions have been minimal, just 10 targets while averaging 53% of the snaps per game,” wrote Woellert. “I like the matchup this week for Lazard, and I’m hoping he can return to form from his early-season production where he averaged 87 yards per game and scored TDs in two of the first three games. Nickell Robey-Coleman has been better in coverage as of late but did allow all four targets to be caught against Seattle. If you give Aaron Rodgers the tiniest window, he’s going to get the ball through. The Eagles’ strength is their pass-rush, but Green Bay’s strength is pass-blocking. If Philly generates a consistent pass rush, it could cause Rodgers to throw some quick hitches to Lazard. NRC is allowing 75% of his targets to be caught and two fantasy points per target.”
D.K. Metcalf (SEA, $8,500) excelled while, for the most part, the rest of the Seahawks’ offense struggled against the Eagles. Metcalf hauled in 10 of 13 targets for 177 yards to score 22.7 fantasy points. He didn’t score a TD but does have six TDs in the last seven games with two multi-score performances. Metcalf has an average matchup against James Bradberry, who has a 54.2% catch rate and has averaged 1.55 fantasy points per target. Metcalf can exploit average. Metcalf has a better matchup is better than Tyler Lockett (SEA, $7,900). Lockett should be covered by CB Darnay Holmes, who also has a 54.2% catch rate but has allowed just 1.23 fantasy points per target. David Moore (SEA, $5,00) makes a nice addition to a Seattle stack because, by far, he has the best matchup of Seahawk WRs. Moore should be covered by CB Isaac Yiadom, who has allowed a 62.5% catch rate and a whopping 2.65 fantasy points per target. Moore has a receiving TD in three of the last five games. There is a good chance he adds another against Yiadom. In that span, Moore has also had four carries for 31 yards. That’s not a ton, but it is an extra facet of his game to pad his score, which is significant at Moore’s low price.
Keenan Allen (LAC, $8,100) saw his targets cut nearly in half from the previous week with the return of pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler. Allen had 19 targets the week prior against the Jets but saw 10 targets against the Bills. Don’t get me wrong, 10 targets are still great, but the reduction is something to consider considering that Allen’s price only decreased $100 from a week ago. Michael Williams ($5,800) price dropped $300 while his targets dropped just two from seven to five. Allen has scored a TD in five straight games, while Williams only has two scores in that span. However, if you want to do a Chargers four stack that includes Herbert/WR/Ekeler/TE Hunter Henry, Williams’s price break is worth considering. Williams provides a decent floor with TD upside, and there are cheaper WRs in better matchup than Allen that should see 10 plus targets. All the Chargers WRs have similar CB matchups. Stephon Gilmore should cover Allen, who has allowed a 61.3% catch rate and 1.60 fantasy points per target. Williams should be covered by CB J.C. Jackson, who has allowed a 50% catch rate and 1.62 fantasy points per target. Jalen Guyton ($4,900) is not out of consideration. Guyton should be covered by Jonathan Jones, who has allowed a 58.9% catch rate and 1.56 fantasy points per target.
Adam Thielen (MIN, $7,800) missed last week on the COVID-IR list. Thielen scored TDs each of the two games prior. In Week 11, Thielen caught eight of 11 targets for 123 yards and two TDs to score 28.3 fantasy points. Cousins will likely continue to look Thielen’s way in the red zone. Thielen should be covered by Jaguars CB Luq Barcoo, who has allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 2.11 fantasy points per target. A closer look at Barcoo’s stats reveals he is often targeted on short passes as he has only allowed an average of 6.86 yards per target, yet he has allowed over two fantasy points per target. That reveals Barcoo has successfully been picked on in the red zone. Justin Jefferson ($7,700) has emerged as another star WR in the Vikings offense. Jefferson has averaged 18.7 fantasy points over the last three games (@ CHI 17.5, vs. DAL 16.1, vs. CAR 22.5). Jefferson has a slightly more difficult matchup than Thielen. Jefferson should be covered by CB Sidney Jones, who has allowed a 44.4% catch rate and 1.67 fantasy points per target. Chad Beebe ($5,300) has the best matchup of the Vikings’ WRs. Beebe should be covered by Tre Herndon, who has allowed a 65% catch rate and 2.12 fantasy points per target. It’s hard to project Beebe will receive more than three to five targets with Thielen’s return and Jefferson performing so well.
Robert Woods (LAR, $7,100) has had 27 targets in the last two games in which he caught 19 passes for 210 yards and a TD. Woods should be covered by Patrick Peterson, who has allowed a 61.2% catch rate and 2.11 fantasy points per target. Woods has exceeded 24 points in two of the last four games, and excellent opportunity to do so again. I believe Woods can outperform both Keenan Allen and Justin Jefferson. I will be using Woods in my Chargers and Vikings build for salary relief in replace of Allen and Jefferson.
DeVante Parker (MIA, $6,800) took advantage of the return of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in a not so advantageous matchup against CB Bryce Hall, who had only allowed 1.27 fantasy points per target. Parker hulled in 8 of 14 targets for 119 yards. He also lost a fumble to score a total of 15.9 points. That performance actually improved Hall’s fantasy point per target average as 14 targets X 1.27 is 17.78. The key is the 14 targets for Parker. “Since being held to two targets against the Rams, Parker has been averaging nine targets a game, including 14 in Week 12,” wrote Woellert. “Parker is leading the receivers in target market share and is averaging 70 air yards per game. Parker is going to move around the field and has run half of his 444 snaps from each side of the field. He’ll also line up in the slot. If he runs 50% of his routes on the right side, that matches him up on LeShaun Sims. Sims was targeted six times last week and has been thrown at 42 times total. Sims is allowing a 78% catch rate and 2.4 fantasy points per target. Even if Parkers gets lined up on William Jackson, he’s allowed the second-most yards in coverage, behind Sims.”
Breshad Perriman (NYJ, $5,900) is a great cheap option for an opposing WR in a Raiders stack. Perriman should be covered by CB Damon Arnette, who has allowed a 74.7% catch rate and 2.31 fantasy points per target. “It’s tough to recommend anyone on the Jets, but the Raiders’ secondary is porous. Perriman is coming off an eight-target game against Miami,” wrote Woellert. “It was apparent Sam Darnold was looking his way when he could. Perriman runs his routes from each side of the field but should run most of his snaps on Damon Arnette. Arnette is yielding 12.4 yards per target, so he’s going to have a problem with covering Perriman, who’s producing a 15.6-yard aDOT. Over 164 coverage snaps, is allowing a 74% catch rate and 2.3 fantasy points per target.”
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND, $5,600) is a great option for an opposing WR in a Houston stack. Pitman should be covered by CB Philip Gaines, who has allowed a 59.1% catch rate and a very high 2.64 fantasy points per target. “The Texans’ CB situation is in some flux this week, which is a great thing for Michael Pittman‘s matchup,” wrote Woellert. “Pittman has crept up the charts and is second among receivers in target market share on the Colts. After seeing just three targets in Week 11, he saw nine last week but converted just two into catches. He should find the sledding much easier to navigate against Houston’s secondary. Bradley Roby has been suspended for six games after testing positive for PEDs. It looks like Phillip Gaines could get the first crack at coverage snaps on the outside. Gaines is not good in coverage, and in just three coverage snaps in Week 11, he allowed 51 yards and a score. Keion Crossen could also see action on Pittman. This is a matchup to target. If Gaines even spends 30 coverage snaps on Pittman, there’s big-play potential. Gaines has been responsible for four scores and is allowing 2.6 fantasy points per target.”
Hunter Renfrow (LV, $5,400) has a fantastic matchup against Jets CB Arthur Maulet, who has allowed a 77.8% catch rate and 2.44 fantasy points per target. Nelson Agholor (LV, $5,400) also has one of the best CB matchups on the Main Slate. Agholor should be covered by CB Lamar Jackson, who has allowed a 61.2% catch rate and 2.43 fantasy points per target. “Jackson has been yielding 11.7 yards per target, while Agholor is generating a 13.7 aDOT (average depth of target),” wrote Woellert. “Jackson has been thrown at 15 times over the last two weeks and has been responsible for three scores, resulting in 2.4 fantasy points per target.” Ideally, I would prefer Agholor over Renfrow. Agholor has a TD in five of the last eight games, while Renfrow only has two TDs on the season. However, Agholor didn’t participate in practice on Thursday, and his status is not clear at the time of writing. If Agholor were not to play, then that would likely mean more targets for Renfrow.
Darren Waller (LV, $7,000) had the best matchup possible last week against the Falcons, who have allowed a league-worst 16.72 fantasy points a game. The Falcons are still the worst against TEs, but the average is down to 15.77 points. That’s because the Raiders and Waller laid a collective egg against Atlanta. Waller only caught four of seven passes for 23 yards to score 4.3 points. I’ll repeat it; good DFS players try to avoid a recency bias. Waller is the best TE on the slate and again has a fantastic matchup. The Jets have allowed a league sixth-worst 14.89 fantasy points a game to TEs. That doesn’t mean you need to sell out on Waller, but you will want some exposure if you play multiple lineups. The Raiders stack of Carr/Renfrow or Agholor/Waller + Perriman costs $25,700.
Hunter Henry (LAC, $6,000) is coming off a season-high 10 targets. He caught seven passes for 67 yards to score 10.7 fantasy points. Henry has now scored more than 10 fantasy points in three straight games. What makes Henry particularly intriguing is the performance Jordan Akins (HOU, $5,100) had against the Patriots in Week 11. In that game, Atkins caught five of six passes for 83 yards to score 10.8 points. A closer look at all the Houston pass-catchers from that game reveals no standout, and Watson spread the ball around. For Herbert to have similar success, he will likely need to take the same approach. That means Henry should again see himself heavily involved in the offense and has TD upside with scores in two of the last three games.
Robert Tonyan (GB $5,900) has caught all five of his targets in consecutive games with a TD in each while averaging 14.05 (@ IND 12.9 and v CHI 15.2) fantasy points. The Colts have allowed an average of 9.14 points a game to TEs, while the Bears have allowed 15.59. This week Tonyan faces the Eagles, who have allowed an average of 13.44 fantasy points a game to TEs. It’s reasonable Tonyan’s performance will be in that range as it reflects his two-week average.
Kyle Rudolph (MIN $5,000) is a value play to stack with Cousins. Rudolph caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards against the Panthers last week. It marked a season-high for targets, catches, and yards for Rudolf. He faces the Jaguars, who have allowed an eighth-most 14.22 fantasy points a game to TEs.
Anthony Firkser (TEN, $4,600) may be an extreme value play. Four times this season Frisker has seen five to nine targets and that was with teammate TE Jonnu Smith playing. Smith (knee) is out this week, so Frisker will likely see all the TE targets for the Titans. Tennesse is playing the Browns who have allowed a second-most 15.69 fantasy points a game to TEs. Prior to Smith being listed as out, Smith was projected for 7.5 points and Firker was projected for 4.5 at 4for4. That’s a combined 12 points, or near 3x performance. It would also make Firskser the top projected TE on the slate. Waller is projected for 11.5 points.
Take A Side
Dalvin Cook (MIN, $10,500) was a major let down last week with just 8.9 points, but DFS players know the importance of not having a recency bias. Two things contributed to Cook’s disappointing performance. Cook lost a fumble to reduce points and injured an ankle on the play, which made him miss some playing time. Cook did return to the game. Nevertheless, Cook still touched the ball 22 times. Suppose Cook should have a banner day if he were to touch the ball 22 times or more this Sunday against a Jaguars defense that has allowed a fifth-most 27.15 fantasy points a game to RBs. Last week, CLE RBs Nick Chubb (25.1) and Kareem Hunt (6.1) combined for 31.3 points against the Jags. The last time Cook faced a defense ranked similarly was in Week 9 when he scored 38.2 points against Detroit. If Cook is trending towards healthy, don’t shy away.
Derrick Henry (TEN, $10,000) last week was perhaps my biggest error of the season. I wrote up all the reasons why Henry could have a monster week and was cheaper than Dalvin Cook. Then when Austin Ekeler became available for cheap on Saturday, I justified that I could pay up for Cook, who I thought was virtually guaranteed to score 20-30 points against because Henry was on paper in a tough matchup against the Colts. Ekeler panned out, but moving off of Henry was a horrendous error. Henry rushed 27 times for 278 yards and three TDs. He also caught two of four targets for seven yards to score a massive 37.5 points. If I played Henry with Ekeler, all of my lineups would have cashed. On paper, Henry has another apparent tough matchup this week against the Browns, who have allowed a 10th best 21.25 points a game to RBs. “There have been three running backs who’ve finished with more than 16 carries against (Cleveland) (James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, James Conner), and each of them finished with at least 100 yards on the ground,” wrote Tagliere. “Henry is the No. 1 player in fantasy football right now and should be in lineups every week. In DFS, I’d prefer to keep Henry as a tournament play considering his lack of involvement in the passing game, but I won’t argue if you wanted to play him in cash.” Titans HC Mike Vrabel did indicate that he would like to see Henry involved more in the passing game. “We have to be able to throw the ball to him,” Vrabel said, according to Titans beat writer for the Atlantic, John Glennon on Twitter. “We would like to continue to work on the screen game with him, but teams have defended it well. Maybe [Titans] haven’t run them well. He has a unique skill set, but we need to do a better job than just handing it off to him.” I’ll have more exposure to Henry than Cook. There
Nick Chubb (CLE, 8,700) was another one of my bigger mistakes last week. Despite Chubb’s great matchup against the Jaguars, I opted for other RBs who I thought would receive a larger percentage of their team’s share of RB touches. Chubb had 19 carries for 144 yards and a TD and caught three passes for 32 yards to score 25.1 points. Chubb has another great matchup this week against the Titans, who have allowed seventh-most 25.25 fantasy points a game to RBs. I really like Chubb but may not end up with any exposure. I’d rather spend $1,300 more for Henry or save $800 for Chargers RB Austin Ekeler.
James Robinson (JAC, $7,800) continues to see an immense amount of work. Over the last five games, Robinson’s lowest touch total was 19 (17 runs, 2 catches) against the Steelers, who are among the best run defenses in the league. The five other games saw 26 to 28 total touches. This week Robinson faces the Vikings, who are in the middle of the pack against the run at 22.87 fantasy points a game allowed to RBs. “The good news is that running backs have averaged a robust 28.7 touches per game against the Vikings, wrote Tagliere. “We should be able to count on 20-plus touches out of Robinson. Here are the six running backs who’ve totaled 20-plus touches against the Vikings this year:
So, five top-14 running backs with just one (Todd Gurley) finishing with fewer than 16.2 PPR points. You’re starting Robinson as a low-end RB1 almost every week, and though this matchup isn’t great, you shouldn’t be fading him.” I’ll play Robinson with my more expensive QB/WR stacks where I can’t afford Henry or Cook.”
Austin Ekeler (LAC, $7,000) is something that I got correct last week, albeit not in the article. The Chargers announced on Saturday that Ekeler (hamstring) was activated off of IR. Without hesitation, I included him in all my lineups. Ekeler didn’t disappoint. Despite coming off of injury, Ekeler had 25 total touches, and it could’ve been more. He rushed 14 times for 44 yards and caught a massive 11 of 16 passes for an additional 85 yards. Ekeler is vastly underpriced this week because his ownership was relatively low, and didn’t score a TD. Ekeler is healthy, sees a similar workload to Dalvin Cook, and is $3,500 cheaper. My goal is to have 100% exposure to Ekeler.
Jonathan Taylor (IND, $6,400) missed (COVID-IR) last week after he had 22 carried for 90 yards and caught four passes for 24 yards to score 13.2 fantasy points against the Packers in Week 11. The absence of a TD kept Taylor from having a truly impressive outing from a fantasy perspective. This week, the Colts face the Texans, who have allowed a second-worst 31.03 fantasy points a game to RBs. The Texans are tied with the Lions for having allowed a league-worst 14 rushing TDs. There is a good chance Taylor scored this week to return a 3X performance.
David Montgomery (CHI, $6,200) had a breakout performance against the Packers last week. Montgomery had 11 carried for 103yards and caught five of six passes for 40 yards and a TD to score 22.8 fantasy points. Montgomery faces a Lions defense that has allowed a league-worst 33.20 fantasy points per game. Detroit is so bad against RBs because they have also allowed a league-worst 14 rushing TDs and seven receiving TDs to RBs. That suggests Montgomery can rack up fantasy points on the ground or through the air against Detroit.
Wayne Gallman Jr. ($6,100) has scored 12.7 to 18.5 points in the last five games. That’s a base of greater than 2X. Last week, Gallman faced the Bengals, who have allowed 22.93 fantasy points per game. Gallman rushed 24 times for 94 yards and a TD. He also caught three of five passes for negative three yards to score 16.6 points. Gallman now has at least one TD in five straight games. This Sunday’s matchup against the Seahawks is slightly better than last week as Seattle has allowed 24.08 points a game to RBs. Gallman may not score 30 points, but he is a cheap option that seemingly provides a 2X floor and has the opportunity for 4X with multiple scores. For slightly more, I prefer RBs David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor but will have exposure to Gallman.
FanDuel Lineup Build
There isn’t an exact science in what a winning FanDuel lineup looks likes. However, they should tell a logical story, and certain elements are frequent.
When building a FanDuel lineup, I’ll try to check off most of the criteria:
1) QB stacked with a WR: This allows for a double score when the two connect.
2) Opposing WRs: A recent analysis of big tournament winners found a high percentage were constructed with two WRs in the same game from both teams. This combination makes sense because high scoring shootouts allow for opportunity on both sides of the ball. Based on matchups, some of our builds incorporate this.
3) RB stacked with Defense: There is a strong correlation between an RB performing well with their team’s defense. That’s something to factor in when choosing a reason, but in reality, it’s often the perceived best available defense with money left from the build that gets plugged in.
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