FanDuel Week 9 Recap: McLellan’s 2K Win and Six-for-Six GPP Performance
In any game, players go on Hot Streaks. I pride myself on being a solid DFS player and providing my readers a ton of well-researched information for free to help you build winning FanDuel lineups. The results speak for themselves. Six of nine weeks have been cash flow positive for me this season. What I’ve experienced in the last two weeks is frankly on a level of constant winning that I have not previously experienced in my five years of playing DFS. In the past two Sunday Main Slates, I played 14 different GPP lineups. Each lineup was built with a separate QB stack, with some QBs being used in both weeks. All were entered into the Sunday Million tournament and more expensive small tournament. Of those 14 lineups, 13 finished in the green in the Sunday Million, and 12 won in the higher-priced tournaments. This past Sunday included a perfect six-for-six in lineup builds in the Sunday Million tournament and included a 3rd place finish in a $65 tournament for a $2,000 win; if the Cardinals would have made a field goal on their final and drive to send their game into OT, the lineup and an outstanding shot at 1st for $5,000. A Raiders stack fell 1.9 points short in a $33 single-entry tournament for a perfect FanDuel Main Slate.
Here is a recap of the big win with what I wrote about the players in my Week 9 Article: Fanduel NFL WEEK 9: In-Depth Player Pool With Expert Analysis
QB Kyler Murray (AIR, $8,600) Performance: Murray threw for 283 yards and three TDs. He also rushed for 106 yards and another TD with one fumble lost to score 37.92 fantasy points.
What I Wrote: Kyler Murray is the third-highest projected QB at 4for3 at 22.8 points. The Cardinals face the Dolphins, whose defense has dramatically improved this year and are ninth-best against QBs at 15.83 points per game. The other concern with this game is the Dolphins played super conservatively after their DST established a lead with two scores. That’s likely not going to happen again, but the Dolphins could slow down the game if they can get a lead.
Recap Comment: The key to Murray’s success is that the Dolphins scored 34 points, pushing Murray to go all out for four quarters.
WR Christian Kirk (AIR, $5,900) and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,000) Performance: The Cardinals WR duo provided a combined 28.2 points for $10,900 for a 2.59X return. Kirk provided most of the scoring with five receptions for 123 yards and a TD to score 20.8 points. Fitzgerald added four receptions for 54 yards for 7.4 points.
What I Wrote: Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald provide an intriguing cheap double stack opportunity with Kyler Murray as opposed to DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800), who most will use to stack with Murray. Hopkins has an absolutely brutal matchup against Dolphins CB Byron James, who has allowed a 42.1% catch rate and measly 0.87 fantasy points per target. Both Kirk and Fitzgerald are coming off an eight target game. Kirk should be covered by CB Xavien Howard, who has allowed a 46.9% catch rate and 1.64 fantasy points per target. Fitzgerald should be covered by CB Nik Needham, who has allowed a 64% catch rate and 1.64 fantasy points per target. Murray/Kirk/Fitzgerald’s reasonable low price at $19,500 provides another possible opportunity to squeeze McCaffrey and Cook into the same FanDuel lineup build.
Recap Comment: Playing Kirk with Fitzgerald and not Hopkins paid off. “Hopkins hadn’t seen a single-game target share below 20% until today,” according to a Tweet from JJ Zachariason, the Editor and Chief at Fanduel and Numberfire. “(Fitgerald) finished with 11.5% of Arizona’s targets.” In the $2,000 winning lineup, Kirk had 3.4% ownership, while Fitgerald was just 0.5%.
WR DJ Chark (JAC, $6,400) Performance: Chark caught seven passes for 146 yards and a TD to score 24.1 points.
What I Wrote: DJ Chark (JAC, $6,400) is a great option for an opposing WR to Deshaun Watson. Chark has plus CB matchup against Bradley Roby, who has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 2.19 fantasy points per target. “My only concern with Chark is the QB situation,” wrote Mike Woellert in his WR vs. CB article at 4for4. . “The Texans’ secondary can be exploited, and while I think James Robinson gets 20 touches, Jake Luton is going to throw, and I can see him targeting Chark. In the two games heading into the bye, Chark was on the field for 88% of the snaps and received 21 targets, so the volume is there. Bradley Roby should spend most of the day covering Chark.”
Recap Comment: This is another case where it’s important to pay attention to WR vs. CB matchups. I also got very fortunate that Chark fit exactly into this build. Chark played a significant role in my success on Sunday as I had multiple shares of him. Chark’s ownership in this tournament was also 3.4%, the same as Kirk.
TE Hunter Henry (LAC, $5,600) Performance: Henry had four receptions for 33 yards to score 5.3 points.
What I Wrote: Hunter Henry sixth-highest touches a game average for TEs at 4.1. Henry faces the Raiders, who are above average against TEs at 11.34 fantasy points a game allowed. Henry has the eighth highest projection at 9.0 fantasy points at 4for4. Henry $2,600 cheaper than Kelce but is projected to score just 2.7 points less. The extra salary can likely be spent on an RB who more likely to obtain a 3X return. That’s something to keep in mind when doing your lineup builds.
Recap Comment: Henry’s performance was frustrating. Twice he was targeted in the endzone but was unable to score. Converting just one of those opportunities may not have moved me into 2nd place 177.64 and $3,000 in this lineup, but would have bolstered payouts in the other lineups I had shares of him.
RB Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,300) Performance: Cook rushed for a whopping 206 yards and two TDs. He also had two receptions for 46 yards and a TD to score a total of 38.2 points.
What I Wrote: Dalvin Cook returned last week after missing two weeks with a groin injury and exploded for 226 combined yards and four TDs to score 46.1 fantasy points. Cook’s performance at less than 10% ownership propelled me to such a great week. Cook’s ownership will undoubtedly go up this week, as he has an opportunity to be the RB 1 again. Cook faces a Lions defense that has a lowed a second-worst 32.13 fantasy points a game.
Recap Comment: This performance exceeded my expectations. My original play was to play a mix of Cook and Christian McCaffrey (CAR, $9,500), with Cook in most lineups and both in some. I backed away from McCaffrey on Sunday morning when Rotoworld Football tweeted that McCaffrey would rotate series with Mike Davis. That was something that I was concerned about, so I pulled McCaffrey and went 100% Cook in my lineups. The change meant that I pulled McCaffrey out of this lineup, which originally had both players. The rotation did not occur, and McCaffrey ended also doing well, scoring 32.1 points. The 1st place lineup that won $5,000 had Cook and McCaffrey, so that that change may have cost me $3,000. With that said, I’m not concerned. As DFS players, you have to make decisions based on the information you have the time. This didn’t happen to be good information.
RB James Robinson (JAC, $7,300) Performance: Rushed for 99 yards and a TD to score 15.9 points.
What I Wrote: James Robinson has the opportunity to also put up monster numbers at a discounted price to Cook and McCaffrey. He is coming off a 29.7 points performance against the Chargers where he carried the ball 22 times for 119 yards and a TD, and four of six targets for another 18 yards and a TD. Robinson faces the Texans, who a third-worst 31.29 fantasy points a game to RBs.
Recap Comment: I’m never going to be mad with a better than 2X performance, but Robinson the ability to have a much better day in terms of fantasy production. It’s especially disappointing that Robinson didn’t have a single reception after adding 9.8 points via receptions the week prior.
RB Chase Edmonds (AIR, $6,700) Performance: Edmonds rushed for 70 yards and had three receptions for 18 yards to score 10.3 fantasy points.
What I wrote: Chase Edmonds is an outstanding mid-range option. Edmonds has taken on the lead back role for the Cardinals, enabling him to see in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 touches. Many of that will likely come as a pass-catcher as last week he caught all seven targets for 87 yards. Edmonds faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed a seventh-worst 26.33 fantasy points a game. The Dolphins have also allowed a 12th worst 343 receiving yards to RBs. Whether I use Edmonds or Robinson may be on what defense I can get. This week, I’m looking to pay up for the Steelers ($5,000) defense against the struggling Cowboys offense.
Recap Comment: The performance by Edmonds was, along with the range of Robinson’s, acceptable but not exceptional. I thought he had a real chance at a 3X day and did not even make it to 2X. However, 10.3 points weren’t outright horrible. This also brings me to the Steelers defense that I felt would have a much better outing against a 3rd string QB. The seven points the Steelers were ho-hum and not adequate for the $5,000 spent. I had five shares of the Steelers defense, so they hurt other FanDuel lineups as well.
Analyzing the Win
What can be learned from this $2,000 win is that you don’t need a perfect FanDuel lineup for a big win. What’s needed is a few players at low ownership to perform above expectations while not having any other players completely fall short. It really was Kirk and Chark’s performances at 3.4% ownership, which elevated me to near the top of the leader board. Both of those players were used because of WR vs. CB matchups. Pay attention to matchups, and you can find players that perform well while also being low owned.
There are really two reasons we play DFS: Have fun and hopefully make money. I’ve had a few other good wins this season that built my bankroll. On Sunday night, I cashed out the entire $2,000 from this win and was still left with a larger bankroll than when I started the week because the other five FanDuel lineups also cashed.
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