FantasyDraft: Week 13 – Another Near Optimized Lineup
I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. My family had a very good one. The kids are now asleep and I am up working to get out this article out for the FantasyDraft Week 13 Main Slate. I’m now thankful that tonight was a completely sober feast!
Due to the Holiday, this is an abbreviated article with just my lineup for the Main Slate that includes short notes one why they made my lineup. Missing is the alternative player at each position and the supportive quotes. This lineup is near optimized with a projected ceiling of 202.3 points, according to FantasyPros.
If you are playing the Hooters 200K (25K to 1st) please make at least one substitute from this lineup.
QB (Salary on FantasyDraft)
KC QB Patrick Mahomes ($14,300) is worth paying all the way up for. The Raiders defense is making mediocre QBs look like All-Pros with a fifth-highest average of 24.8 fantasy points allowed to QBs. In a very important divisional game, expect Mahomes to bring his A-Game.
WRs/Flex (Salary on FantasyDraft)
KC WR Tyreek Hill ($15,900) is the most expensive WR on the slate. That makes the stack of Mahomes with the most expensive ($30,200) stack on the slate. It’s also projected to provide the most value. FantasyPros projects the stack to score a combined 28.6 points with a ceiling of 51.5 points for a possible 1.55X return.
JAX WR DJ Chark Jr. ($12,300) has averaged 18.46 points a game. He faces a Buccaneers defense that has allowed a league-worst 49.7 fantasy points a game to WRs. Chark has a moderate matchup against CB Carlton Davis, but the Jaguars should move the ball against TB and provide Chark plenty of opportunities.
WR Robert Woods ($9,900) will likely face AIR CB Patrick Peterson who has allowed nearly 2.5 fantasy points per target this season. Woods is coming off back-to-back games of scoring over 15 points (16.5,15.7). There is a good chance Woods scores over 20 with this matchup for a 2X return, and the upside is there for a much greater return.
TE (Salary on FantasyDraft)
IND Jack Doyle ($6,400) should see an uptick in targets with IND WR T.Y. Hilton (calf) suffering a setback and is already listed as out. Doyle has a plus matchup against the Tennesse Titans who have allowed on average 12.8 fantasy points a game to TEs, 12th most. This puts Doyle in a good position for a 2X return.
RBs/Flex (Salary on FantasyDraft)
OAK RB Josh Jacobs ($13,000) has the best possible matchup in the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed a league-worst 33.2 fantasy points a game to RBs. If Jacobs plays, he could have his best performance of his young career which includes his Week 5 performance against the Bears where he scored 32.3 points. Jacobs (shoulder) was limited in practice on Thursday but appears to be trending in the right direction.
GB RB Aaron Jones ($12,700) is one of the biggest wildcard players in this lineup. His production from week to week has varied greatly. Here his fantasy scores for the last four weeks: 44.60, 3.90, 27.30, and 2.80. In a GPP tournament, you have to roll the dice somewhere. Jones is a good as place as any because of his high upside. He has a plus matchup against the Giants who have allowed an average of 24.80 points a game to RBs. FantasyPros projects Jones for 17.8 points with a ceiling of 24.8 points for a possible 1.95X return. Those are reasonable projections based on the matchup. Let’s hope that his every other week pattern continues for Jones and this is another big week.
IND RB Jonathan Williams ($10,000) surprisingly took on a workhorse load in replace of RB Marlon Mack (hand). Williams carried the ball 26 times for 104 yards a TD plus he had three receptions for 17 yards for a total of 24.10 points against the Texans. If Williams receives anything near the same workload against the Titans this week, he could easily put up a 2X return. Tennesse his a plus matchup that has allowed an average of 25.9 points a game to RBs.
Team Defense (Salary on FantayDraft)
The Baltimore Ravens ($5,500) have a tough matchup against the 49ers but have scored double-digit fantasy scored for five straight weeks. The low in the span was 13 points against both the Rams and Patriots. Baltimore has a good chance to at least provide a 2X return.
Putting it all Together
This lineup has the highest projected QB/WR stack with Mahomes and Hill. WRs Chark and Woods should combine for 15 to 20 targets and are in excellent positions to have big days. RB Jacobs has the best possible matchup in the Chiefs. Also, RB Williams appears to be a value play based on his workload last week and his matchup. RB Jones is hit or miss but has the potential to be a huge player in winning a GPP. TE Doyle should easily exceed value with an increased amount of targets. The Ravens defense has consistently scored in double digits over the last month and if they do it again will provide at least a 2X return.
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