FantasyDraft: NFL DFS Week 10 – Montgomery and Singletary Value Plays
Week 10 is full of familiar names in great matchups, but some new faces have also entered into the lineup. It’s always important to pay close attention to trends, particularly shifts in workload. This week we are playing two RBs that we have yet to roster in a lineup this season. They both recently seen a significant increase in their workload and their price has not quite caught up. This discrepancy provides FantasyDraft value. It also allows us to work into our lineup some high price studs that are in possession for big days.
The FantasyDraft lineup in this article and the one created during on DFS Fantasy ForePlay podcast will be entered into the FantasyDraft Week 10 Hooters $300 K ($50k to 1st) Main Event. The podcast will be posted at the top of this article sometime on Saturday.
QB (Salary on FantasyDraft)
NO QB Drew Brees ($12,600) is an excellent mid to high range option. After missing five weeks with a thumb injury, Brees came roaring back last week. He completed 34 passes for 374 yards for three TDs with one INT to score 28.92 fantasy points. Brees has now attempted 43 passes in each of the two games he was healthy this season. He faces a Falcons defense that has allowed a fourth-worst 24.9 fantasy points a game to QBs.
“The Falcons might be the worst defense in football right now,” wrote Mike Tagliere in his Weekly Column The Primer for FantasyPros. “Well, that might be an overstatement, but part of the reason it seems that way is because their offense is able to score enough points to keep the opponent’s foot on the throttle. Still, the Falcons defense has allowed a 7.63 percent touchdown-rate and 8.46 yards per attempt on the year, both bottom-five marks in the league.
Combining Brees’ ultra-high 75.8 percent completion-rate with the 69.5 percent completion-rate the Falcons are allowing, and you don’t even need more than 30 pass attempts for him to do damage. Speaking of efficient, the last time he played the Falcons, he threw the ball just 28 times for 171 yards and four touchdowns. The only quarterbacks who haven’t finished as top-12 options against the Falcons this year were Kirk Cousins who threw the ball 10 times, and Russell Wilson, who threw the ball 20 times.”
Alternative QBs (Salary on FantasyDraft)
BAL QB Lamar Jackson ($13,500) broke through what had been an iron-clad Patriots defense last week. His legs did most of the work. Jackson completed just 17 of 23 passes for 163 yards and TD against New England, but he also carried the ball 16 times for 61 yards and two more TDs for a total of 28.62 fantasy points. In only one game (Week 5 vs. Pit, 14.44) this season has Jackson be less than 21.28 fantasy points. In the other seven, he has averaged 29.54 points with three performances over 30. Jackson has a matchup against the Bengals that could lead to his highest fantasy performance of the year after already compiling 33.64 points against Cincinnati in Week 6.
“(The Bengals) are a mess on defense and are the only team in the NFL who’s allowed at least 16.3 fantasy points in every game this year,” wrote Tagliere. “The crazy part is that just one quarterback has thrown the ball more than 33 times against them, so they’re allowing fantasy points in a variety of different ways, including on the ground. Jackson racked up 152 yards and a touchdown on the ground against them in Week 6.”
ATL QB Matt Ryan (10,600) might be a great place to find value. He is coming back after injuring an ankle in Week 7. In every game prior to that, he threw for over 300 yards and averaged 27.44 points. However, the only QB to score more than 20 points against the Saints since Week 3 was CHI QB Mitchell Trubisky ($10,200) who scored 20.04 points in Week 7. That is an interesting outlier because Trubisky has only averaged 10.18 points per game. Ryan is far better than Trubisky and has a ton of recent success against the Saints.
“Ryan was able to notch 374 yards and five touchdowns in the first meeting last year while totaling 377 yards and two touchdowns in the second meeting,” wrote Tagliere. “He had two of the top six performances the Saints defense allowed last year, and they had similar personnel. The lack of a run-game for the Falcons, combined with the Saints ability to shut down the run, equals plenty of pass attempts for Ryan, who should be plugged in as a mid-level QB1 in this divisional matchup.”
WRs (Salary on FantasyDraft)
LAR Cooper Kupp ($13,700) is coming off a bye following a dazzling performance in London. Against the Bengals in Week 8, Kupp caught seven passes for 220 yards and a TD. The yardage marked a career-high and will likely be his best performance of the season. Nevertheless, he is in a great position to continue a hot streak in which he has scored between 20.60 – 38.80 points in five of the last seven games.
“It appears that Brandin Cooks is going to miss some time with concussion issues,” wrote Mike Woellert in his weekly WR vs. CB column at 4for4. “Kupp should see more targets than normal this week. The Rams have an implied total of 24.5, so without Cooks in the mix, you’d have to believe Kupp is going to be responsible for at least one of those scores if Jared Goff slings it out. Mike Hilton should be on Kupp for most of the day. Hilton allowed a score last week and is allowing over two fantasy points per target (2.03).”
NO WR Tedd Ginn Jr. ($7,300) has always been a great GPP play. The problem is he doesn’t get a ton of volume but can provide a great return to value if you play him on a week where he hits for a couple of big plays. Ginn is in a position to do exactly that this week with his matchup against ATL CB Desmond Trufant.
“Ginn has a fantastic matchup with Trufant, who’s coming off turf toe,” wrote Woellert. “Trufant has lost a few steps due to injuries over the last few seasons. Trufant has been responsible for four TDs and is allowing 18.2 yards per catch, resulting in 2.9 fantasy points per target. With Drew Brees under center, Ginn has the upside to break off a big play.”
Alternative WRs (Salary on FantasyDraft)
NO WR Michael Thomas ($15,700) is the No.1 WR across most of the fantasy industry this week. Thomas will likely live up to expectations but is also the most expensive. By playing Brees at QB, we still have some exposure to him. The contrarian play of Ginn instead of Thomas provides major salary relief and leverage in the Falcons defense somehow finds a way to contain Thomas, which admittedly is unlikely. We also hope Kupp can provide similar performance to Thomas and with the savings we have strengthened our lineup elsewhere.
TB WR Mike Evans ($14,900) has scored 20.80, 45.80, and 39 points in the last three games. Evans will likely continue to pour it on against AIR CB Patrick Peterson who has allowed 2.7 fantasy points per target. Evans is another WR Woellert is high on.
TE (Salary on FantasyDraft)
TE O.J. Howard ($6,400) has been a massive disappointment. Howard’s best game this season came in Week 3 against the Giants when he caught a whopping three passes for 66 yards to score 9.60 fantasy points. Howard has yet to find the end zone. Why play him? Each week you have to find value somewhere. Howard (hamstring) is fresh because he is coming off of an injury and has not played in three weeks. His teammate TE Cameron Brate ($7,400) is suffering from a rib injury and that may leave all the TE targets for Howard. He has the best possible matchup in the Cardinals who have allowed a league-worst average of 22.6 fantasy points a game to TEs. If Howard is going to post TE1 performance, it’s likely going to be this week.
Alternative TEs (Salary on FantasyDraft)
ATL TE Austin Hooper ($9,900) is the leading fantasy TE with an average of 18.63 fantasy points per game. Hooper appears to be a great value at his price. A stack of Ryan/Hooper is $20,500 and still leaves flexibility for other great plays.
RBs/Flex (Salary on FantasyDraft)
CAR RB Christian McCaffrey ($19,200) was supposed to have a tough matchup last week against the Titans. On 24 attempts, McCaffrey ran for 146 yards and two TDs. He also had three receptions for 20 yards and TD to rack up 40.60 fantasy points. It was the second time this season he has posted a 40-burger or above. Which includes a high 50.70 against the Jaguars who were also supposed to be a tough matchup. In three other games, McCaffrey has scored 30 or more points.
This week McCaffrey faces a Packers defense that has allowed a third-most 29.6 fantasy points per game to RBs. With an offense that runs through McCaffrey, 30 points remarkably appear to be a floor for him against Green Bay. Week over week rostering McCaffrey is a great start reaching the Pay Out Zone in. If you don’t play McCaffrey, there is a reasonable chance that he could reach 40 points and you are then way behind the competition. There is value plays to foud each week in DSF, find them and roster McCaffrey.
“The RB1, no matter what,” Tagliere wrote. “We haven’t even talked about the fact that he’s about to go against the Packers defense that’s allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. There have been four running backs who’ve finished with 25-plus PPR points against them, and you’ll like McCaffrey, even more, when you hear those running backs were Jordan Howard (32.5), Phillip Lindsay (29.0), Dalvin Cook (28.1), and Melvin Gordon (25.9). They’ve allowed a massive 4.89 yards per carry on the season, and have now allowed 10 rushing touchdowns over the last eight games.”
NO RB Alvin Kamara ($15,400) has not played since Week 6 due to an ankle injury. That time off likely has deflated his price by perhaps a few thousand. He was close to coming back in Week 8. The Saints then had a bye in Week 9, so he is likely healthy and has fresh legs. The biggest question is whether Kamra will primarily be used as a runner or a pass catcher. In the two games the Saints faced Atlanta last year, Kamara was used in vastly different capacities. In Week 3 Kamra had 15 catches and then one 1 catch in week 12. If Kamara is used close to how he was in Week 3 last season, he could easily score over 30 points. In that game, he scored 33 points and didn’t reach the end zone.
“The matchup with the Falcons favors Kamara’s role quite a bit, as they’ve been a team who’s struggled to defend pass-catching running backs under Dan Quinn,” wrote Tagliere. “While they’ve allowed minimal production through the air this year, that likely has to do with all the success teams have had attacking their secondary. Still, on a per-target basis, the 1.80 PPR points per target the Falcons have allowed is well above average.
Last year, they allowed a league-high 243.6 PPR points through the air to running backs, and they allowed just 1.67 PPR points per target, which highlights just how bad they are when facing volume this year. Kamara has played 17 games with Brees since the start of last year and has seen at least five targets in 13 of them. Kamara actually set the record for running back targets against the Falcons last year when he saw 20 of them in their Week 3 matchup. He’s always in lineups as a high-end RB1 and this matchup should leave no doubts.”
CHI RB David Montgomery ($10,900) has had 41 carries and seven receptions and has averaged 25.15 fantasy points in the last two games. Not only has Montgomery seen a dramatic increase in his workload in recent weeks, but he also has a glorious matchup against the Lions. Detroit has allowed a league-worst 33.6 points a game to RBs.
“Ever since Matt Nagy said, ‘I know we need to run the ball more, I’m not an idiot,’ the Bears have given Montgomery a massive 48 touches over the last two games,” wrote Tagliere. “He’s totaled 16 or more touches in five of the last seven games, so we have a clear-cut workhorse in him. The issue has been the offense in general, which can only improve from here, so seeing Montgomery tally 47.3 PPR points over the last two weeks is very promising.
The Lions happen to be a great matchup, too. They’ve now allowed nine different running backs to tally 14.6 or more PPR points against them, including seven 20-plus point performances, which is the most in the NFL. In fact, no other team has allowed more than five such performances. Despite not catching any passes Josh Jacobs was able to tally 24.0 PPR points in Week 9 against them.”
BUF RB Devin Singletary ($9,500) is coming off the best game of his rookie season. He carried the ball 20 times for 95 yards and a TD, plus three catches for 45 yards to score 23 fantasy points against the Redskins. The week prior he had three carries for 19 yards and four catches for 30 yards and a TD for 14.90 fantasy points. Singletary was slowed by a hamstring injury between weeks 3-6, but now that he is healthy seems to be taking on the lead-back role while the aging RB Frank Gore ($7,300) is seeing significantly reduced workload.
“Singletary has racked up 30 touches over the last two weeks that have netted 189 yards and two touchdowns,” wrote Tagliere. “Meanwhile, Gore’s 20 touches in that time have netted 49 scoreless yards. Not only have running backs averaged a respectable 27.9 touches per game against the Browns, but they’ve been highly efficient touches. The 4.93 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the second-most in football, while the 7.83 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark.”
Alternative RBs (Salary on FantasyDraft)
MIN RB Dalvin Cook ($16,400) is someone we would love to play, we just can’t fit him the lineup with Brees/McCaffrey/Kamara/Kupp. Cook has an average matchup against the Cowboys who have allowed an average of 24.5 points a game per RB. It would not be surprising if Cook surpassed that. In many ways, he is a safer play than Kamara. However. the fact Kamara has a legitimate chance to catch 10 or more passes makes him the better GPP play. If you are playing a cash game, substitute Cook for Kamara.
GB Aaron Jones (14,600), IND Marlon Mack ($13,600), BAL Mark Ingram II ($13,300), and TEN Derrick Henry ($12,000) all have great matchups and potentially could have big days. These are great players to have exposure to if you are playing multiple lineups. We just think Montgomery and Singletary offer similar potential at a cheaper price.
CLE Kareem Hunt ($6,000) is coming off of suspension and is an intriguing option at the minimum salary. It’s anyone’s guess exactly how much work he will get, but his ceiling is limited playing with RB Nick Chubb ($14,500). Nevertheless, he could still easily hit value if Hunt gets goalline touches to protect Chubb.
Team Defense (Salary on FantayDraft)
The Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900) are what we can afford. The Chiefs have a decent chance at returning a 2x performance. They have averaged 7.55 points a game and have a plus matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
Putting it all Together
QB Drew Brees should be among the top-performing QB of the week. RBs Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara could potentially finish as the top fantasy scorers for their position this week. WR Cooper Kupp is a great spot to continue his hot streak. WR Ted Ginn is a bit of gamble, but he has upside with great CB matchup and makes for a contrarian stack with Brees. TE O.J. Howard is a gamble but he has the best matchup possible. RBs David Montgomery and Devin Singletary appear to have great value. They have both seen a recent dramatic increase in their workload. Which isn’t fully reflective of their price and they are in plus matchups. The Chiefs are decent play at defense and have the potential to outperform against the Titans.
Mix It Up
To protect yourself from a duplicate lineup, it’s wise to not exactly play any lineup you find on-line. This lineup will be entered into the FantasyDraft Week 10 Hooters $300 K ($50k to 1st) Main Event and likely at least one other contest. If you are playing on FantasyDraft, please switch out at least one player.
Make the right selection with IroniqMedia for all of your DFS coverage.
Follow Dan on Twitter @sandiegosports.