FantasyDraft: NFL DFS WEEK 7 – All High Volume Plays in Great Matchups

Faith, family, football is mantra frequently heard in NFL locker rooms on how a player should prioritize their life. While not a player, I pride myself that I can typically balance life, and provide a weekly FantasyDraft detailed fantasy football article. This week, it was a priority that my family needed more attention. My two children both missed school fighting the stomach flu. My first job is that of a stay at home, dad. The time I usually commit to research and writing simply wasn’t there. The result is a trimmed out a bit from why each player was selected and reduced the alternative plays. I’m still very excited about this week’s lineup because it has a high-volume player at every position, and they are all in great matchups.

The lineup in this article and our DFS Fantasy Foreplay podcast will be played in the FantasyDraft $300 K Hooters Main Event (50K to 1st) contest. If you want to play, signup early. The price has is lowered to $25 and the total entries to 12,000, so it will likely sell out.

The podcast will be posted at the top of this article on Saturday.

QBs (Salary on FantasyDraft)

DAL QB Dak Prescott ($11,200) is a fantastic spot against an Eagles defense that just made MIN QB Kirk Cousins ($11,000) look like an offensive juggernaut. Cousins completed 22 of 29 passes for 333 yards with four TDs with one INT last week. The Cowboys are at home, and Prescott should be slinging it. His lower price allows for you to pay up elsewhere.

“The Eagles have allowed 131-of-201 passing for 1,656 yards and 13 touchdowns through five games,” wrote Mike Tagliere in his weekly column The Primer for FantasyPros that breaks down every fantasy-relevant player. “That’s a 65.2 percent completion-rate with 8.24 yards per attempt while allowing 331.2 yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game.”

Alternative QBs

ATL QB Matt Ryan ($11,400) has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season.  The Falcons game has the highest over/under at 55 points with Falcons projected to score 26 points and the Rams 29. Despite the Rams’ pitiful offensive performance last week, the oddsmakers are expecting that this game will be a shootout because of the Falcons’ weak pass defense.

LAR QB Jared Goff ($11,700) completed 13 of 24 pass attempts for 78 yards and lost a fumble en route to scoring 1.12 fantasy points against the 49ers last week. I rostered him a season-long league and still somehow managed to win. That performance and sub-par performances recently will likely create a justifiable recency-bias. The Rams have the highest projected score of the week. Those projections are often meet with high ownership, but his ownership will likely be much lower because of recent performances. Goff is still a bit of risk because of his recent play, but having exposure to him in a GPPs makes a ton of sense.

WRs (Salary on FantasyDraft)

IND WR T.Y. Hilton ($12,100) has a great matchup against the Texans, who he has a lot of recent success. Hilton is matched up on TEX CB Johnathan Joseph.

“Hilton usually steps his game up against these Texans,” wrote Mike Woellert in his weekly WR vs. CB Matchup column at 4for4. “Over his last four games, he’s racked up 21 receptions for 503 yards while averaging just over eight targets per game. Joseph has struggled in coverage this season, allowing a 69.2% catch rate and 12.7 yards per catch. He’s been responsible for two scores and is allowing 1.88 fantasy points per target.”

DAL WR Michael Gallup ($8,300) has drawn 30.8% of Dak Prescott’s targets in the four games he has played, according to Matt Schauf of Draft Sharks. Gallup faces Eagles CB Rasul Douglas, who has allowed 20.87 yards per reception and a whopping 2.20 points per target. Teammate WR Amari Cooper ($13,000) is battling a sore quadriceps and ankle and may not play. If Cooper does play, Gallup is far healthier and while likely be Cowboys No.1 receiver for this game.

Alternative WRs

LAR Robert Woods ($11,000) is the cheapest of the Rams three main WRs and has a matchup he certainly should be able to exploit.

“Goff will recognize that Desmond Trufant is toast in coverage, assuming Trufant plays,” wrote Woellert. “He’s been responsible for four touchdowns his last two weeks and is giving up 2.9 fantasy points per target this season.”

NO WR Michael Thomas ($14,100) has 28 catches in the last three games. His ownership may be lower than average this week because the Saints are facing a good Bears defense. Thomas, however, has a plus matchup against CB Prince Amukamara, who has allowed 66.7% catch rate and 1.82 fantasy points per target. No Cover Mike may not have a monster game against the Bears because the Saints may not have a ton of scoring opportunities, but he could still score between 20 to 30 points with the volume he gets.

BUF WR Cole Beasley ($9,200) doesn’t have a TD this year but is quietly putting together a solid season. Beasley has 27 receptions for 267 yards in five games. This week, his TD drought could come to an end. He has the best possible matchup on the slate. Dolphins CB Jomal Wiltz has allowed 55.6% catch rate for a very gaudy 28.40 yards per reception and a nearly off the chart 3.47 fantasy point per target.

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TEs (Salary on FantasyDraft)

NYG Evan Engram ($12,400) faces the Cardinals who have allowed 46 receptions for 599 yards and seven TDs for an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game to TEs, all by far a league-worst. If you are only playing one lineup this week, Engram must be in it.

Alternative TEs

ATL TE Austin Hooper ($10,600) makes for a fantastic stack with Ryan. He leads all TEs with 42 receptions and has the second-most receiving yards at 480. Hooper’s three TDs are also good for second-most at the position. The Rams are in the bottom third against TEs, having allowed 13.1 fantasy points a game to TEs.

LAC TE Hunter Henry ($9,100) played in his first game since Week 1 on Sunday night and was about the only bright spot for the Chargers against the Steelers. Hunter caught eight of nine targets for 100 yards and two TDs. He looks cheap after that performance. Henry faces the Titans who have are with tied with two other teams for allowing a second-worst four TDs to TEs.

RBs/Flex (Salary on FantasyDraft) 

MIN Dalvin Cook ($15,000) has one of the best matchups of the week against the Lions, who have allowed an average of 31.0 fantasy points a game to RBs. The Viking offense runs through Cook, so he has an excellent opportunity to meet or exceed that average.

JAX RB Leonard Fournette ($12,900) has the best matchup possible in the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed ten (7 rushing, 3 receiving) TDs and 36,1 fantasy points game to RBs, both a league-worst. Fournette has 20 or more carries in each of the last three games, and in that span has ten receptions. Fournette has accounted for 88.2% of the Jaguars RB fantasy production, according to Tagliere. With those numbers, Fournette could easily exceed 30 pints.

OAK Josh Jacobs ($10,600) is coming off the best game of his young career, and it went against an excellent defense. Jacobs had 26 carries for 123 yards and two TDs, plus three catches for 20 yards against the Bears. Jacobs faces the Packers who have allowed a second-worst eight (7 rushing, 1 receiving) TDs and fourth-worst 29.7 fantasy points a game to RBs.

TEN RB Derrick Henry ($10,600) has 15 or more carries in every game this season. Henry faces a Chargers defense that has been struggling. The Bolts have allowed seventh-most 654 rushing yards. They have also allowed six (4 rushings, two receiving) TDs to RBs, and 27.2 fantasy points a game to the position.

“The Chargers have missed defensive end Melvin Ingram who’s been out the last two weeks with a hamstring injury,” wrote Tagliere. “We don’t know if he’ll be out there this week just yet, but if he’s out, it’s an upgrade for Henry, as the Chargers have allowed 5.22 yards per carry on the snaps he’s not on the field (Ingram missed practice Wednesday). You are always looking for that big run with Henry, and the Chargers have allowed five run-plays go for 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. He should be in lineups as a solid RB2 this week, and if Ingram’s out, it could be a big day.”

Alternative RB

LAR RB Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,900) may be the value play of the week if teammates RB Todd Gurley II ($12,100, quadriceps) and RB Malcolm Brown ($10,600, ankle) do not play. In that scenario, Henderson would be the lead back in the game with the highest projected score.  The Falcons have allowed an average of 25.4 fantasy points to RBs.

Team Defense (Salary on FantasyDraft)

The San Francisco 49ers ($6,500) are worth the price of admission this week. The 14 points a game they have averaged is the best of any team on the Main Slate and is 2.80 points higher than the Bears who are second-best. They face the Redskins, who have allowed some monster games to quality opposing defenses. The Giants defense scored 24 points on Washington in Week 4.

Put It All Together

FantasyDraft Week 7

Photo Credit: FantasyDraft

This lineup has a player that is in a great matchup at every position. In fact, Prescott has an excellent shot of throwing for 300 yards and three TDs or more. Also, the receiving corps of Gallup/Hilton/Engram may catch 25-30 passes, and each of them has the potential to exceed 100 yards while scoring at least one TD. Finally, the four RBs Cook/Fournette/Jacobs/Henry should combine for more than 80 total touches, and they each have a real opportunity of going over 100 yards.

If you play the FantasyDraft $300 K Hooters Main Event (50K to 1st) contest, please switch out at least one player from this lineup.

 

 

 

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Dan McLellan Rankings

ECR ™ – Expert Consensus RankingLast week was terrible, I fell from 88th overall to off the chart. However, I am proud that I am still eighth overall for TEs. Time to bring those rankings up.

 

Follow Dan on Twitter @sandiegosports.

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