DFS: DraftKings NFL Championship Weekend, It’s All About those Backs
This is the final weekend in the DraftKings DFS season with meaningful games, these are the most meaningful games of the season. The winner of these two games will be heading to Super Bowl LIII. The difficulty in picking lineups for these games is you just don’t know where to go. You could play the recency bias and pick the players that had good games last week. I think that would be a fool’s errand though, instead look at the historical data from the season and the strengths and weaknesses of each teams defense. In doing this you get a clearer picture as to who may be the premium plays. Let’s use this metric as the basis for out DraftKings lineup building.
If you’re looking to build a FanDuel line up have a look at Dan McLellan’s piece DFS: FanDuel NFL Championship Weekend, A WR Heavy Approach
Los Angeles Rams visiting New Orleans Saints: Saints -3, O/U 56.5
New England Patriots visiting Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -3, O/U 56.5
For the sports bettors on this slate, the bets that make the most sense to us are taking the Patriots and the +3 points and take the under. In the Rams/Saints game, we like taking the Saints and teasing the line to -4 and we like the Over in this game
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Pricing around the QB this week is quite compressed with a price differential of $500 separating the three QBs that I feel are in play this week. The cash game play I like this week is Drew Brees – $5.9K. His upside play at home in the Super Dome is too great to pass up. The game script should lead to a pass-heavy game whether he is looking for Tedd Ginn downfield or short out routes to Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara. I also really like Tom Brady – $5.8K, he has a knack in the playoffs for playing his best ball. With a weak Kansas City defense look for Tom to have his opportunities to move the ball and put some points on the board.
You can also make an argument for playing Jared Goff – $5.4K as the salary saver this week. In looking at the last game against the Saints, Goff had a great game putting up over 391 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He is going up against a Saints secondary that while they have been playing better is suspect at best. Look for Goff to target Robert Woods out of the slot often.
This week I’m attacking the defenses that are weak against the pass-catching backs. The Chiefs are terrible against this position which makes James White – $5.4K and his $5.4K salary a plus player for me. In the same right, Damian Williams – $6.4K on the other side of the ball is intriguing as well, regardless if the Chiefs are playing from behind or ahead Williams will be busy. His salary being $6.4K is reasonable for most lineup constructions.
Alvin Kamara – $6.5K like Goff had a game and a half the last time these 2 teams met scoring 3 TDs. I’m expecting Brees to look for him as a safety valve when under pressure from the Rams pass rush.
The matchups at this position are what counts this week and this is where we’re going to go with this. Robert Woods – $5.7K has the best matchup of any wide receiver on this slate P.J. Williams has allowed a 63.4% catch rate and a gaudy 2.22 points per target on the season. Woods since moving to the slot has been nothing but a top play. Lock him into your cash games and GPP’s. Michael Thomas – $8.2K has had a great season and playoff run setting a franchise-playoff-record of 171 yards thus far. He is Mr. Dependable for Drew Brees, lock him in both Cash games and GPP’s.
Some guys with high upside in these matchups are Tyreek Hill – $7.7K and Julian Edelman – $6.6K. They are go-to targets for their QBs and will be busy. For some value plays I like Tedd Ginn – $4.3K, I believe his speed will come into play and he could potentially be the x-factor in this matchup. Sammy Watkins much like Ginn has the ability to stretch the field, this could putt additional pressure on the Patriots defense. Speaking of the Patriots don’t overlook Phillip Dorsett – $3.9K like both Ginn and Watkins he can create some mismatches downfield.
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There are really only two plays here if you want to spend up go with Travis Kelce – $7.1K if you want to pay down Rob Gronkowski – $4.1K has the highest upside of the remaining group. The shot in the dark is Gerald Everett – $2.7K.
The two defenses with the highest potential ceilings and the Rams – $2.3K and the Chiefs – $2.5K. If you are looking for salary relief look at the Patriots – $2.1K.
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
L.A. Rams: Jared Goff, Robert Woods, Gerald Everett
Kansas City Chiefs: Damian Williams, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
New England Patriots: Tom Brady, James White, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski
Be sure to listen to a special playoff edition of DFS Fantasy Foreplay Sunday, January 20, 2019, from 12 pm to 1 pm, where we help you settle any of your lineup decisions.
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