DFS: Saturday Only, Luck Be a Mack Tonight
It’s crazy to think that we are al the last weekend in the DFS season with more than 2 games to play. With that in mind, let’s get ready for next week by playing just a 2 game slate. Today we have the divisional round matchups between 2 high-powered offenses and two defenses that have shown that they are no joke. The 4:35 pm ET game has the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a game where these teams will battle each other but the elements of weather too. The nightcap game is in sunny Los Angeles where the L.A. Rams will be hosting the Dallas Cowboys in a game that should prove to be exciting and potentially grueling. Let’s have a look at the players that could put some change in your pockets.
If you are looking for a full DFS slate lineup discussion, check out Dan McLellan’s article DFS: FANDUEL DIVISIONAL ROUND, BREES, AND SAINTS WRS PROVIDE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SUCCESS
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -5.5, O/U 56.5
Dallas Cowboys at L.A. Rams: Rams -7, O/U 48.5
For the sports bettors out there I like teasing the Colts up to 11 and Dallas up to 13. I like to under of the Colts/Chiefs game driven by the weather and the over of the Rams/Cowboys game.
With a two-game slate, you have to make a decision on how you want to spend your money. You could pay up and take Patrick Mahomes ($6.9K on DK and $9.0K on FD), he is the highest priced QB on the slate and will most likely be the chalk play at the position. His matchup looks good on paper, but if anyone has been watching the Colts defense lately they could very well cause him some problems. Not to mention its Andy Reid in the playoffs and you never know what you’re going to get.
The play I like here is Andrew Luck ($6.2K on DK and $8.5K on FD), as the season has progressed he has looked more and more like his old self. Bundle this with the fact that the Chiefs have beaten 1 team with a winning record this season and that was in an overtime win against Baltimore. The Chiefs secondary is not grading strong and is terrible against pass-catching backs.
If you’re looking for a value play here there is really only one and that’s Dak Prescott ($5.1K on DK and $7.8K on FD). The fear here is that the Dallas offensive line hasn’t played great in recent weeks and will be facing an Aaron Donald who will be looking for Dak’s head on a platter.
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This is where things get interesting if you are looking to get Todd Gurley ($7.6K on DK and $9.2K on FD) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8.1K on DK and $8.8K on FD) into the same line up you are going to have to look for value at most other positions. I’m looking to take a more balanced approach this week which is completely possible. I like a running back line of Marlon Mack ($6.2K on DK and $7.4K on FD) and Damian Williams ($4.9K on DK and $6.1K on FD).
They both provide great upside with Mack facing a Chiefs defense that is terrible against the run and Williams in a position for goal-line touches. If you are hellbent on getting either Elliot or Gurley in your line up pay down at WR and TE where there is some really great value and lock one of them in with Mack and Williams. The key here is volume and all of these running backs have the ability to catch and run.
I have only a few top plays for today, and they are, Robert Woods ($5.6K on DK and $7.7K on FD) who is facing Anthony Brown in the slot. Woods is averaging 8 targets a game there since week 12 and Brown is allowing 13 yards per reception to opposing wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton ($6.7K on DK and $7.9K on FD) who will be matched up with Charvarius Ward who has yielded 13.2 yards per reception and just over 10 yards per target.
I also like the Amari Cooper ($6.1K on DK and $6.5K on FD), with a banged up Cole Beasley (ankle), he is going to need to step up and be a true number one. His matchups aren’t terrible against Aqib Talib or Marcus Peters whoever picks him up in coverage as Peters has looked terrible and Talib is just coming back from injury. If you don’t want to pay up for Cooper or are going with the WR2 theory Michael Gallup ($4.0K on DK and $5.7K on FD) is your man, he should see his fair share of targets in the red zone too.
There aren’t many value plays I like this week but if I were going to go out on a limb they would be Josh Reynolds ($4.4K on DK and $5.6K on FD) and Chris Conley ($3.8K on DK and $4.7K on FD). They both have decent matchups and will provide the salary relief that you may be looking for in order to fit in the higher priced guys.
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There are two tight ends I like today and they are Eric Ebron ($5.5K on DK and $6.6K on FD) and Travis Kelce ($6.8K on DK and $7.5K on FD). I have managed to construct lineups that have both of these guys in there. Neither the Colts nor the Chiefs are very good at defending the tight end so either take one or both and roll with it
This is another week where you can reasonably make an argument for any of these defenses. With my lineup constructions, I have found myself landing on whether the Rams ($3.0K on DK and $5.0K on FD) or the Cowboys ($2.2K on DK and $4.2K on FD).
Be sure to listen to a special playoff edition of DFS Fantasy Foreplay Saturday, January 5, 2019, from 1 pm to 2 pm, where we help you settle any of your lineup decisions.
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