DFS Sunday Only: Don’t Poke the Bear, It Will Ertz You
Its Wildcard Weekend and the kick off to the 2018/2019 NFL Playoffs, this article we’re going to focus on the DFS Sunday only slate. With only 2 games you want to get yourself exposure to 3 of the 4 teams. The real trick here is to find the value so you can run your core of players, creating your variance with the high upside cheap plays.
If you want to have a look at what lineup construction looks like for the full weekend slate have a look at Dan McLellan’s piece DFS: FANDUEL WILD CARD WEEKEND, DARE TO FADE HOPKINS AND ELLIOTT
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -3, O/U 43
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: Bears -6.5, O/U 41.5
For the sports bettors out there I really like both home teams to cover their respective spreads. I do however like the under in the Chargers/Ravens game and the Over in the Eagles/Bears game.
Much like the Saturday slate, you can make very reasonable arguments to playing any one of these quarterbacks, whether it’s for value sake or strong play sake. I’m going to give you my 2 top plays and 1 contrarian low owned play on this slate. My top play this week is Mitchell Trubisky ($6.6K on DK and $8.1K on FD), while he hasn’t lit it up in recent weeks due to injury or bad decision-making. I feel that this is a great spot for him, the Eagles secondary has been suspect all season. You can add the bonus of him adding value with his feet in this contest as well. Look for the Bears defense to give Trubisky and the offense good field position at several points in this game.
Lamar Jackson ($6.3K on DK and $8.4K on FD) has the most read options in the playbook than any other quarterback in the league nevermind this slate. Look for him to use his feet often to move the ball down the field. The stout Raven Defense should give them great field position and using the ground and pound approach to manage the clock will be in the Ravens favor. I very much expect the Ravens to use the pass to set up the run and I don’t expect many passing yards from this rookie signal caller, which devalues his receivers in this matchup.
I have to go here because of the second coming of Nick Foles ($5.4K on DK and $7.6K on FD), This is the second season in a row that Foles has taken over in December to lead his team into the promised land. I am fully expecting the Eagles to be playing from behind and Foles to attempt to work his magic. I don’t expect him to be very highly owned and he is the cheapest QB on the slate.
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Unlike the Saturday slate, I don’t feel there is a very chalky play here, I find it reasonable that you can pay down at the running back position and still build a winning line up. With that said, Melvin Gordon ($7.9K on DK and $8.4K on FD) is healthy or as healthy as he is going to be and is in a prime place to build off the last meeting where he scored a TD. He will have to have a day to reach value and I think with the weather being cold in the Northeast he will handle the rock an ample enough times to get it done.
Outside of Gordon, the other plays I like are on the cheaper end of the spectrum. Gus Edwards ($4.7K on DK and $7.2K on FD) will fall into play due to the game script of grounding and pounding. Tarik Cohen ($6.7K on DK and $7.0K on FD) I think is a better fit in the game script of the pass-catching back against a weak Eagles secondary, and will get his looks in the red zone too.
My sneaky contrarian play is Darren Sproles ($4.4K on DK and $5.5K on FD), he has already declared that this is his last season playing football, and this may very well be his last game. He has the best feet of any running back in the game and I expect him to get his pass-catching back duties especially with the expected playing from behind.
These matchups are very interesting there are very few plus matchups for the wide receivers in these games. Allen Robinson ($5.6K on DK and $6.5K on FD) draws the best matchup on this slate with Avonte Maddox the likely cornerback that will be matching up with him. If Robinson is reasonably healthy look for Trubisky to look for him deep several times in this game. Alshon Jeffery ($6.5K on DK and $7.5K on FD) also known as Nick Foles BFF draws a favorable matchup against Prince Amukamara who has been responsible for 4 TDs and 13.5 yards per reception.
Keenan Allen ($7.3K on DK and $7.7K on FD) is Philip Rivers go to possession receiver if the Chargers offensive line can protect rivers and give him the time necessary in the pocket Allen will get his. Taylor Gabriel ($4.6K on DK and $5.0K on FD) is another speedy guy who will look to take advantage of his cornerback situation. Rasul Douglas will be the likely matchup and Douglas has given up a near 63 percent catch rate and 13.8 yards per reception. Douglas also finds himself a target of opposing QBs due to his lackluster coverage skills.
I am having a hard time recommending a Raven receiver, just due to how that game script is. If you want exposure to the wide receiving core, take a look at John Brown ($3.7K on DK and $4.7K on FD) or Michael Crabtree ($3.6K on DK and $4.7K on FD). Which one do you play? Flip a coin, that’s the best I can tell you.
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There is really only one play here and that is Zach Ertz ($6.3K on DK and $7.6K on FD), he is an integral cog in the Eagles offensive machine. If you believe I the “Revenge Game” idea have a look at Trey Burton ($6.2K on DK and $4.5K on FD), while he hasn’t materialized into what we were looking for this season, he is in a great spot against the porous Eagles secondary.
In a word “Punt” it. Pick whatever is the best defense you can fit at the price range if you really believe in the Bears defense, by all means, pay up. I have given you plenty of value plays to roll with to make it happen.
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, Taylor Gabriel, Bears Defense
Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles, Alshon Jeffery, Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Ravens Defense
Los Angeles Chargers: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon
Be sure to listen to a special playoff edition of DFS Fantasy Foreplay Saturday, January 5, 2019, from 1 pm to 2 pm, where we help you settle any of your lineup decisions.
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