DFS Saturday Only: Press Your Luck Mr. Carson
Its Wildcard Saturday and the kick off to the 2018/2019 NFL Playoffs, this article we’re going to focus on the DFS Saturday only slate. With only 2 games you want to get yourself exposure to 3 of the 4 teams. The real trick here is to find the value so you can run your core of players, creating your variance with the high upside cheap plays.
If you want to have a look at what lineup construction looks like for the full weekend slate have a look at Dan McLellan’s piece DFS: FANDUEL WILD CARD WEEKEND, DARE TO FADE HOPKINS AND ELLIOTT
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Texans -1.5, O/U 48.5
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas -2, O/U 43
For the sports bettors out there, I really like both underdogs in these matchups. I think both the Colts and the Seahawks can win these games outright. In terms of the spreads, I like the over in both of these games as well.
You can make a strong argument that you could play any of these guys today but in the spirit of building lines and having success, I’m going to pick 2. My favorite play today is Andrew Luck ($6.4K on DK and $8.4K on FD), he has already pretty much locked up the Comeback Player of the Year and has brought his team back tot he playoffs for the first time since 2014. In the two meetings with the Texans, this season Luck has basically gone off with a combined total of 67 completions for 863 yards and 6 TDs to 1 Int. These are strong numbers going into this matchup and I don’t see any reason why he won’t replicate this in a playoff atmosphere.
The other play I like today is Dak Prescott ($5.5K on DK and $7.7K on FD), He is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and in my opinion will have to throw more than the Cowboys would like. The Seahawks run defense has come to life at the end of this season on the shoulders of Bobby Wagner, he is arguably one of the premiere run defenders in the game right now. This plays into a game script of short dump passes to Ezekiel Elliott and taking advantage of his wider receiving and tight end cores. Being on the cheaper side gives the opportunity to get the higher priced guys in your lineups.
I know I said I would pick 2 but, my low owned contrarian pick would be Russell Wilson ($5.7K on DK and $8.2K on FD), he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks this season in passing attempts and is always a threat on the ground.
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There is going to be a considerable amount of chalk here, I think its good chalk considering you can create your variance at other positions. Ezekiel Elliott ($9.0K on DK and $8.8K on FD) will be the chalk today, with ownership pushing 80%. Zeke is a beast and what he doesn’t get done on the ground he will get his share of passes to make things happen.
Chris Carson ($6.8K on DK and $7.5K on FD) one of only two running backs to eclipse the 100-yard mark against the Cowboys this season. I see the Seahawks feeding him often as to play the time of possession game against the Cowboys. Lamar Miller ($4.9K on DK and $6.4K on FD) is really a value play on this slate when you consider the pricing of the other two I mentioned above, his backups just aren’t that good. I think we’re going to see something close to 20 touches for Miller in this game. He also is always a threat to rip off a 90 plus yard run and steal the slate.
Looking for a contrarian play Nyheim Hines ($3.5K on DK and $4.8K on FD) could be a sneaky touchdown vulture, as well as, be utilized in the passing game.
Here is where I feel you can get crafty with your lineups. Of course, it’s tempting to throw in DeAndre Hopkins ($8.7K on DK and $9.5K on FD), he has proved that he is the best receiver in the game right now. But at this high of a price tag, you are going to have to make sacrifices in other areas to build a solid competitive GPP line up. I’m not saying to slot him in but have a look around at the other options on the slate.
My favorite play on this slate is T.Y. Hilton ($7.8K on DK and $7.9K on FD), in the previous two meetings he has completely torched the Texans secondary, the last meeting alone he came 1 yard shy of hitting the 2-century mark. Amari Cooper ($7.5K on DK and $6.7K on FD), as I mentioned earlier Dak is going to have to throw the ball, and Cooper has a prime matchup against Shaquill Griffin who has rated as one of the poorest coverage cornerbacks this season. Griffin has allowed four touchdowns and over 600 yards in coverage, resulting in 13.9 yards per reception and 1.84 fantasy points per target. This makes Cooper almost a lock in both Cash and GPP formats.
I’ve spent the last week trying to figure out who the better play from the Seahawks was this week Between Tyler Lockett ($8.7K on DK and $9.5K on FD) and Doug Baldwin ($6.2K on DK and $7.3K on FD). When Baldwin is healthy he’s productive, while looking at Lockett’s numbers he posted career highs in every category this season, and is more explosive and used in many more ways in the offense. I’m leaning towards Lockett here as I just don’t know if Baldwin can even make it through the game.
Time for those low owned variance plays I mentioned at the top of the article. DeAndre Carter ($3.3K on DK and $5.2K on FD) comes in as a number 2 option to get a piece of the Texans offense if you don’t want to pay up for Hopkins. Dontrelle Inman ($4.3K on DK and $5.5K on FD) has worked his way to being the number two receiver behind Hilton, another pivot if you want to pay up elsewhere. If you feel like you don’t like either of the above mentioned Seahawks or want to be contrarian look at David Moore ($3.5K on DK and $4.8K on FD).
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There’s really only 2 plays here Eric Ebron ($5.2K on DK and $6.6K on FD) the touchdown vulture of the Colts and Blake Jarwin ($3.3K on DK and $5.8K on FD) the late bloomer in Dallas who has sniped touchdowns in the previous 2 games. Either one of these guys is a viable play today based on what your lineup construction looks like.
This is where you can pick a DFS defense that fits your pricing model, I like the Colts and the Cowboys today.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, T.Y.Hilton, Eric Ebron, Colts Defense
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, Blake Jarwin
Houston Texans: Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett
Be sure to listen to a special playoff edition of DFS Fantasy Foreplay Saturday, January 5, 2019, from 1 pm to 2 pm, where we help you settle any of your lineup decisions.
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