DFS: Week 17, Don’t Steel the Pack from the Chiefs
Here we are week 17, the last week to play a full DFS main slate. This slate poses a bunch of problems as some teams have nothing to play for whether its due to the season being over for them or playoff teams that can’t lose their position in the playoffs. The key to this slate is playing the games that have meaning, so look to those games and get it on from there. After nailing last weeks slate, let’s keep that roll going and on into the playoffs
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Falcons -1.5, O/U 51.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Giants -5.5, O/U 41
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Packers -7.5. O/U 44.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Texans -6.5, O/U 40.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Bills -6, O/U 39.5
New York Jets at New England Patriots: Patriots -13.5, O/U 46
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks -12.5, O/U 38
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Vikings -4.5 O/U 40.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers -14.5, O/U 45.5
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -5.5, O/U 40.5
LA Chargers at Denver Broncos: Chargers -6.5, O/U 42
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -14, O/U 52.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Eagles -6.5, O/U 42
San Francisco 49ers at LA Rams: Rams -10, O/U 48.5
This is a large slate so let’s not complicate things. Ben Roethlisberger ($7.0K on DK and $8.7K on FD) is in a must-win situation and he has the best opportunity to do so. Playing at home against a Bengals team that has essentially rolled over. Ben put the team on his shoulders last week in New Orleans and he will have to do it again. Patrick Mahomes ($7.1K on DK and $9.5K on FD) the most expensive QB on the slate, while there may be better value at the position, the Chiefs have home field on the line. Like Ben, his matchup is juicy going up against a Raiders team that while is play well is not in the same league as the Chiefs and the high-powered offense.
Mid-tier options include Nick Foles ($5.9K on DK and $7.6K on FD) who again put the Eagles in a position to make the postseason with throwing for 471 yards and four scores in the win last week. The Eagles have to win and hope the Bears beat the Vikings for a change to make the postseason and continue the magic. Lamar Jackson ($5.6K on DK and $7.7K on FD) is another QB playing for something, the Ravens need to win to keep their position and their playoff hopes alive. This is no simple task considering the Browns have been playing better ball as the season has gone on. Jackson’s dual-threat ability would put him in a position for success.
I have a few gutty plays that I will definitely put into a few GPP’s this if you want to pivot off of Ben and Patrick have a look at Russell Wilson ($6.1K on DK and $8.3K on FD), the Seahawks still have something to play for. Aaron Rodgers ($6.3K on DK and $8.4K on FD), while the season is over, I still look for him to end on a high note at home. The last is Teddy Bridgewater ($5.3K on DK and $7.3K on FD), he is basically playing to audition for teams in the offseason. I expect him to put it all on the line as this may be his last opportunity to find himself a starting job.
This week I’m really looking at the value of the position. There is really only one high dollar play that I would consider and that is Saquon Barkley ($8.2K on DK and $8.5K on FD). He will be home facing a Cowboys team that is going to rest its starters, I look for him to finish his rookie campaign with one final beastly day. He is a Cash game and GPP lock for me.
The rest of the field is mid-tier to value plays. I like Damian Williams ($6.1K on DK and $6.9K on FD), he is coming off a few great performances and just received a 2-year extension. While Spencer Ware will be back in the fold, I think the Chiefs want to really test and see what they have in Williams and the future of their backfield. Jamaal Williams ($6.0K on DK and $6.8K on FD) will look to capitalize on his career performance from last week and has the opportunity to expand on that performance. He will be involved in passing game much like last week. His price is solid where it is and gives the ability to get some variance at other positions on the slate.
As for value plays, have a look at Royce Freeman ($3.5K on DK and $4.7K on FD), while he doesn’t exactly excite me he will be getting the lion share of the carries in Denver. Jalen Richard ($4.2K on DK and $4.8K on FD) believe it or not is a top 10 pass-catching running back this season for both targets and receptions, he seems to get the bulk of his work when the Raiders are trailing so look for him to get his with the Chiefs explosive offense on the other side destined to put up points often
There are a ton of great plays here in all pricing categories this week. I’m going to go back tot he well again with Davante Adams ($8.0K on DK and $8.5K on FD) who is just 133 yards shy of the all-time single-season record for receiving yards in the Packers organization. The last time Adams played the lions he had a slash line of 9/140/1 and I can imagine the results being anything other than the same. Lock him into your Cash and GPP lineups and don’t look back.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8.3K on DK and $7.9K on FD) will look to rebound this week after his unfortunate fumble at the end of last weeks campaign against the Saints. With a less than 100% Antonio Brown, I think he is a great pivot and will be a consistent target of Big Ben against the Bengals. I really like the matchup that Tyreek Hill ($8.4K on DK and $7.8K on FD) has this week, he will be facing Gareon Conley who has been burned often this season. I don’t think he has the speed or talent to keep up with Hill. Mike Evans ($7.7K on DK and $7.3K on FD) also has a plus matchup this week as he will be shadowed by Desmond Trufant who is having an average season at best. Evans will look to close the season strong and look forward to next season with possibly a new commander under center.
The value plays this week that I like are Jordy Nelson ($4.9K on DK and $5.2K on FD) who has been a top 10 wide receiver the past 4 weeks and Chris Godwin ($4.3K on DK and $5.1K on FD) who will fill the role of DeShaun Jackson who appears to have played his last game in Tampa Bay.
With all the value at the other positions, you have the opportunity to spend up for a tight end this week. Travis Kelce ($7.2K on DK and $7.7K on FD) and Zach Ertz ($6.7K on DK and $7.8K on FD) are those plays this week. They are both integral parts of their offense and their quarterbacks look to them often, not to mention both of their matchups are on the super plus side. The Value you here this week is Gerald Everett ($2.8K on DK and $4.8K on FD) and Ian Thomas ($3.3K on DK and $5.7K on FD). Both have a ton of upside and are in good positions to snipe a touchdown and some yards. My gut plays this week is Evan Engram ($5.3K on DK and $5.9K on FD) he is an integral part of the offense and has developed some nice chemistry with Eli, he could be a sneaky, low owned GPP play. Vance McDonald ($4.2K on DK and $5.6K on FD) will get his share from Ben, he should also see his opportunities in the red zone.
Here is where I’m looking for a DFS defense this week. I really like the NY Giants, against a second-string Cowboys team. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are great plays. The LA Rams are looking to prove that they are a true contender. If you want to punt your defense take a look at the Arizona Cardinals and the NY Jets as they look to play spoiler in New England.
Top DFS Stacks
Be sure to listen to DFS Fantasy Foreplay on Sunday mornings from 11 am – 1 pm, where we help you settle any of your lineup decisions.
Stay with IroniqMedia for all of your DFS and season-long fantasy coverage.
You can also follow me on Twitter at Rendermann.