DFS: Turkey Thursday … Can you feel the Brees?
This is a great time of year for DFS, we have our last week of byes and we have a 3 game slate on Thanksgiving. Playing the Turkey Thursday Only slates are a great way to build up your bankroll for the upcoming weekend. The three games this year are great division matchups, at 12:30 ET you have the Chicago Bears visiting the Detroit Lions. At 4:30 pm ET you have the Washington Redskins visiting the Dallas Cowboy, and to put the whipped cream on your NFL evening you have the Atlanta Falcons visiting the powerhouse New Orleans Saints at 8:20 pm ET. All of these games are packed with options to plug into your DFS line up and win some Black Friday cash. Let’s have a look and get to building those lineups.
Disclaimer: I tend to build my lineups with cash games in mind, to test performance you can most definitely play these in gpp tournaments. I also give what level of confidence I have in these plays.
Drew Brees (New Orleans -12.5, O/U 60) hosting Atlanta Falcons
After tossing at least four TDs and 265 passing yards in each of the past three games, Brees is ready to set the world on fire again. We can’t forget that the last time these two teams met, Brees had a line of 396 yards 3 passing TD and rushed for 2. Looking at the Falcons defense it is rated close to the bottom at giving up yards to opposing QB’s. Brees is the best QB on the slate with the highest floor and highest ceiling so lets not over think this and just plug him in. At the price of $6.7K on DK and $9.0K on FD, lock him in cash games and your GPP’s. Confidence level: High Exposure
Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons +12.5, O/U 60) visiting New Orleans Saints
While Ryan has had an up and down season, one of the bright spots was the last time these 2 teams met. Ryan had a line of 374 yards and 5 passing TD’s. This is a great pivot play if you want to save some cash in your lineups to spend elsewhere. With the ferocity that the Saints will be moving the ball and scoring points the Falcons are going to have to sling the ball to keep up. At the price of $6.1K on DK and $8.6K on FD, Ryan makes a safe play in cash games and a great play in GPP’s. Confidence level: Moderate-High Exposure
Colt McCoy (Washington Redskins +7.5, O/U 40.5) visiting Dallas Cowboys
Oh boy, I know what you’re all thinking, “this guy is going to suggest starting a guy who hasn’t won 7 professional games and can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field”. Well, in reality, yeah I am and here is why, McCoy has been in this system for 4 seasons, he probably knows it better than Alex Smith. Let’s also be honest Smith wasn’t lighting it up as the starter and McCoy just has to be a competent starter and move the ball. Another reason you might want to start McCoy particularly in GPP’s is his price. At the price of $4.7K on DK and $6.5K on FD, his ownership will be low and, it gives you the flexibility to pay up for another stud in GPP’s. Confidence level: Low-Moderate GPP Exposure
You could certainly make an argument to play any of the other QB’s on this slate, but for cash considerations and a GPP punt play, I would stick with what’s above. Also, keep up to date on the news regarding whether Mitchell Trubisky is playing or not, so this would make Chase Daniels is another punt option at QB.
Ezekiel Elliot (Dallas Cowboys -7.5, O/U 40.5) hosting Washington Redskins
Elliot has had a great run as of late, posting at least 187 scrimmage yards and getting into the end zone in his last 2 games. We could also call this a revenge game, not one in the traditional sense of the fantasy realm, but in week 5, the last time these 2 teams met Elliot had his worst game of the season. However, the Redskins defense has shown regression against the run in the past three weeks, allowing an average of 165.3 scrimmage yards to the RB position. With all this being said, I don’t see the Redskins being able to stop Elliot not to mention that the Cowboys will look to control the clock. At the price of $8.6K on DK and $8.7K on FD, fire him up in both your cash games as well as your GPP’s. Confidence level: High Exposure
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans -12.5, O/U 60) hosting Atlanta Falcons
It seems like every week we’re looking at Kamara, and this week is no different when you have a team like Atlanta that allows the most receptions per game to RBs, so this is no surprise that we’re heading back to the well once again. It’s hard to imagine that Kamara doesn’t put up a stat line of 125 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs. At the price of $8.3K on DK and $8.9K on FD, fire him up in both your cash games as well as your GPP’s. Confidence level: High Exposure
Stack considerations: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram
Theo Riddick (Detroit Lions +3.5 O/U 44) hosting Chicago Bears
Ahh, Theo Riddick the running back that screws you when you need him and goes off when you don’t. Well, he’s back in play this week as it appears that Kerryon Johnson will be out this week with a bum knee. While some may say that this will be a LeGarrette Blount game, we have to look at the fact that the Lions may be playing from behind and will have to throw to keep up. Stafford will be looking for a second or possibly a third target depending on Marvin Jones Jr availability, enter Riddick who can catch out of the flat or out of the slot. At a price of $4.5K on DK and $4.8K on FD, flexibility is the name of the game (pun intended). If you need salary relief you could definitely look here for it in either our cash games of GPP’s. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
Stack considerations: Kenny Golladay, Detroit Defense, Matt Stafford
While I’m only mentioning 3 plays above there are plenty of options out there, you will need to get creative in your DFS lineups if you’re going to try to fit both Kamara and Elliot in your lineups. I would look at Mark Ingram (Cash, GPP), Tarik Cohen or Jordan Howard (GPP), LeGarrette Blount (GPP) and Tevin Coleman (GPP, Cash) as possible pivots if you’re looking to pay up at WR or QB.
Michael Thomas (New Orleans -12.5, O/U 60) hosting Atlanta Falcons
Here I am again recommending another Saint, but how could you not when they are as hot as they are and the matchup is … well … a premium one. Thomas has been targeted 27 times and has 24 catches, 373 yards, 4 TD’s in the past three games. The last Atlanta game, he had 10 catches for 129 yards. He will continue to be a consistent threat and the first look for Brees. At the price of $8.9K on DK and $8.8K on FD, lock him in cash games and your GPP’s. Confidence level: High Exposure
Stack considerations: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Drew Brees
Calvin Ridley (Atlanta Falcons +12.5, O/U 60) visiting New Orleans Saints
Ridley’s first game against the Saints was his career breakout game, he posted a line of 7/8 for 146 yards and 3 TDs. He created such a mismatch during that game Marshon Lattimore was pulled in to try to break the cycle. The general thinking is Lattimore will be shadowing Julio to start the game and that the Saints defense is just good against the run. This sets up Ryan to pass a lot and exploit the weaker cornerback matchup and give more looks to Ridley who may be able to stretch the field against Eli Apple who has struggled at covering opposing WRs. At the price of $5.4K on DK and $6.2K on FD, he is a good Pivot off Julio in both cash games and GPP’s. Confidence level: Moderate-High Exposure
Stack considerations: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper
Anthony Miller (Chicago Bears -3.5 O/U 44) visiting Detroit Lions
This is an interesting situation when I first looked at playing Miller, Mitch Trubisky was the starter, but now that situation is looking murkier. The fact remains, Miller, torched the Lions in their last meeting with a line of 5-122-1. If Chase Daniels is the QB I think this makes Miller even a better GPP play due to suppressed ownership. With pricing on the cheaper end $4.4K on DK and $5.6K on FD, the upside play here. Confidence level: Low-Moderate Exposure
Stack considerations: Bears Defense, Taylor Gabriel, Jordan Howard
There is a ton of value at WR on this DFS slate if you are going to want to fit high price RBs and QBs, you’re going to have to get salary relief someplace and WRs is the place for it. If you don’t like the above have a look at Kenny Golladay (Cash, GPP), Julio Jones (Cash, GPP), Cole Beasley (GPP), Trey Quinn (GPP), Tre’Quon Smith (GPP), Keith Kirkwood (GPP) Amari Cooper (GPP).
Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins +7.5, O/U 40.5) visiting Dallas Cowboys
Reed had his best game of the season last week, putting up 7/71/1. With Colt McCoy now at the helm the working theory is he will look for the short outs which brings Reed squarely into play. Reed is the second best option at tight end this week with extremely low floor and an equally high ceiling. At a price of $4.7K on DK and $6.0K on FD, not only does this provide salary relief it also gives you a solid play in GPPs. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
Stack considerations: Redskins Defense, Colt McCoy, Trey Quinn, Adrian Peterson
Trey Burton (Chicago Bears -3.5 O/U 44) visiting Detroit Lions
The same situation that is presented with Miller and Reed also applies to Burton. While not a huge target for Trubisky, Daniels may be more inclined to look at the tight end especially in the red zone. He really is the best option at the tight end position on this small slate. At a price of $4.0K on DK and $6.4K on FD, slot him into your cash games and give yourself some exposure at tight end. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
Stack considerations: Bears Defense, Taylor Gabriel, Jordan Howard, Anthony Miller
Here is where I’m looking for a DFS defense this week New Orleans Saints (Cash, GPP), Dallas Cowboys (Cash, GPP), Washington Redskins (GPP), Detroit Lions (GPP).
So there you have it … roll with this for the upcoming DFS Turkey Thursday slate. Use this as a help in building your lineups.
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