DFS: Week 11 The Few, The Manning, The Upside
Here we are in week 11 of the DFS Fantasy Football season. We are looking at one of the toughest main slates of this season. There are very few high impact teams in this slate with Green Bay and Seattle playing on Thursday and the LA Rams and Kansas City Chiefs set to square up on Monday Night Football. We are also missing some high-velocity offenses due to 6 teams being on the bye this week. Missing from the slate are the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, and the San Francisco 49ers. So what exactly does this leave us with? I’m going to give you my takes at what the best plays I feel are on this meager main slates for both Fanduel and Draftkings.
Disclaimer: I tend to build my lineups with cash games in mind, to test performance you can most definitely play these in gpp tournaments. I also give what level of confidence I have in these plays.
Drew Brees (New Orleans -9, O/U 55) hosting Philadelphia Eagles
This game is the most intriguing of the slate, with the highest projected total. This matchup for Drew is a tasty one, for starters, the game is at home in the Superdome, secondly, the Eagles pass defense is mediocre at best and looking at his stats this season his accuracy is in the top 1% of the league. I’m projecting his ownership to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% on both sites. At the price of $6.5K on DK and $8.5K, he is almost a lock in cash games and a solid play in GPP’s. Confidence level: High Exposure
Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles +9, O/U 55) visiting New Orleans Saints
As mentioned above this is a very intriguing game and with using my eyeballs it’s going to be a high-flying affair. The Eagles will most likely be behind in this game and will have to throw the ball. The Saints defense has shown that they are beatable so this opens things up for Ertz and Jefferies to do some damage. I’m projecting his ownership to be similar to that of Brees as somewhere between 12-15% on both sites. At the price of $6.3K on DK and $7.7K, he is a solid pivot in cash games and a decent play in GPP’s. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
Eli Manning (New York Giants -1.5 O/U 52) visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Well first off I feel kind of dirty for even writing this considering what a dumpster fire the Giants have been, But when you look at the numbers Eli has the highest completion percentage of his career this year at 67.6%, is averaging more passing yards per game (285.0) than any year since 2011, and is averaging more yards-per-attempt (7.4) than any year since 2012. This week he faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This, as the title suggests is the week to play Eli in GPP’s and even in cash games, the upside is there if you believe Eli is capable of upside. His ownership projections across both sites are only around 5% and his cost flexibility $6.7K on FD and $5.2K on DK opens a world of possibilities to buy up at other positions. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
Other Quarterback Pivots
Saquon Barkley (New York Giants -1.5 O/U 52) visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As one of the top running backs in the NFL this season only behind Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara. Barkley has an amazing matchup this week, not only as a natural runner but also as a pass catcher. With the Buccaneers rating as a bottom of the barrel defense against the run, and not to mention they are missing their starting linebackers, Kwon Alexander and Levonte David, Barkley is set to feast this week in no small way. I’m expecting his ownership to be on the higher side across both slates somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%-25%. While he is one of the pricier RB’s on the slate $8.7k on DK and $8.8K on FD, he is almost a must play in both cash and GPP’s. Confidence level: Moderate Exposure
David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals -4 O/U 40.5) hosting Oakland Raiders
Since Brian Leftwich has taken over the play calling in Arizona, DJ has been fed the ball similar to the Arians days, 18.5 carries and 6.5 targets per game while racking up an average of 141.5 total yards. While this is really a small subsample DJ is going up against a Raider team that seems like it has just quit and is only going through the motions so they all can get paychecks. Speaking of the raiders they are giving up the most yards to opposing running backs at an alarming rate of nearly giving up a score on 50% of the drives. His ownership isn’t going to be as high as some of the other backs on the slate, I still think he will hit somewhere between 15 %-18%. HIs cost 7.5K on DK and 7.9K on FD also makes him both cash and GPP eligible. Confidence Level: High Exposure
Stack Considerations: Arizona Defense
Melvin Gordon (LA Chargers -7 O/U 46.5) hosting Denver Broncos
Another a juicy matchup this week due to there being no Gurley. I am considering Gordon a top option on this slate in both GPP’s and cash games. There really isn’t anything here not to like, his production has been steady all year, his snap count has grown the past few games, and he is facing a below average Broncos defense. This game script will most likely call for a ground and pound style which will fall right into Gordon’s wheelhouse. His projected ownership should fall someplace between 15%-20% on both sites. His pricing 8.9K on FD and 8.7K on DK may keep his ownership on the lower side of the spectrum but as mentioned fit him in your lineups. Confidence Level: Moderate-High Exposure
Stack Considerations: Chargers Defense
Other Running Back Pivots
This year I have been playing a lot more WR2 in my lineups and stacking up on higher dollar RB’s and this seems to be the case again this week. This is not to say that I don’t like the crop of WR1’s, there are lineups that I can fit 1 or possibly more. Below are the plays I like this week.
Michael Thomas (New Orleans -9, O/U 55) hosting Philadelphia Eagles
Much like Brees, how can you not like Thomas in this matchup against the Eagles defense. The chemistry between this duo is one of the ages. if you look at the numbers Thomas is on his way to having the most efficient receiving season in NFL history. Through nine games, Thomas has reeled in 78-of-87 targets on the season with seven touchdowns. Is there really anything left to be said? Thomas’ market share is going to be high this week somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%. If you’re not paying down at WR Thomas is a must play in all formats, even with the price tags of $8.8K on FD and 8.8K on DK. Confidence Level: Moderate-High Exposure
Stack Considerations: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara
Corey Davis (Tennesee Titans 2, O/U 48.5) visiting Indianapolis Colts
Davis has back to back weeks of double-digit targets and going up against an Indianapolis defense that is more the suspect against opposing wide receivers. To drive this point home, even more, Davis will be matched up against Quincy Wilson allowing a 75 percent catch rate and 2.13 fantasy points per target. Then there is Davis’ straight-line speed where we have the potential of a long TD this week. Ownership this week should be on the lower side with other options around the price range but expect to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 10%-12%. The pricing of 5.6K on DK and $6.2K on FD make him almost a lock to fit into your cash games and a sneaky GPP play. Confidence Level: Moderate Exposure
Stack Considerations: Marcus Mariota
Sterling Shepard (New York Giants -1.5 O/U 52) visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It has been an up and down season for the Giants slot receiver, but this week he like his teammates are in a position to succeed in a big way. I’m bringing up Shepard here over Odell Beckham because of who is the opposing CB. According to Mike Woellert from 4for4.com, Stewart isn’t making any plays—in fact, he’s making a play on the ball fewer than 10 percent of the time he’s thrown at. He’s been responsible for three touchdowns and is allowing 2.34 fantasy points per target. I expect ownership to be 5%-7% considering the 3 target performance against the 49ers, but this matchup is too juicy not to pay attention. With a price tag of $5.3K on DK and $6.3K on FD, Shepard is a great play in GPP tournaments. Confidence Level: Low-Moderate Exposure
Stack Considerations: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram
Other Wide Receiver Pivots
Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles +9, O/U 55) visiting New Orleans Saints
Looking to build off of Sunday nights insane 14-145-2 performance Ertz goes to NOLA with the same expectations of about 30% of the Eagles offense market share. This guy is a beast and a lock across the board. Expect his ownership to be in the high 20% to low 30% when lines lock. With a price of $7.6K on FD and $6.6K on DK, you bet your ass I’ll build some lineups that begin with him and play fill in the blank. Confidence Level: High Exposure
Stack considerations: Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery
Other Tight End Pivots
Here is where I’m looking for a defense this week LA Chargers (GPP), Pittsburgh Steelers (GPP), Dallas Cowboys (GPP), Arizona Cardinals (Cash, GPP), Baltimore Ravens (Cash, GPP)
So there you have it … this is where my brain is at for the upcoming week. Use this as a help in building your lineups.
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