DFS: FanDuel Week 10, QBs Wilson and Fitzpatrick Provide Value as Underdogs
QBs Russell Wilson and Ryan Fitzpatrick have consistently provided solid DFS performances and are poised to do it again this week as underdogs. The two are both in matchups that will likely see their teams relying on them in the fourth quarter to pull out a win and should again post FanDuel scores of above 20 points.
This article will provide lineups for the Main Slate and a 1:00 PM Eastern Only slate. The alternative players will be used in the early games to create variance in our exposure to some players. The Main Slate lineup will also serve as our Sunday Million lineup because it has enough players with low ownership projections
Warning: There are large fires on the west coast that could affect games that include players recommended in this article. As a DFS player, It’s always important to keep an eye on conditions and how they could impact games. At this point, there are no changes to the schedule, but that could change with the air quality having already reached unhealthy levels in some areas affected.
NFL statement: “We are monitoring conditions in California and are in close communication with the clubs and local authorities. At this point, both the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders game and the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams game will kick off as scheduled.”
QB Russell Wilson (SEA, $7,700 on FanDuel, 0.7% projected on FantasyPros) was the last piece of this week’s puzzle because of his price and the stack with WR Tyler Locket. After a closer look, we believe there is a lot to like. The Seahawks are 10 points underdogs, so the projected game script is Wilson will be throwing the ball a lot late in an attempt to keep up with the Rams, and he likely will take some deep shots.
Wilson is projected to score 2-3 points less than most of the top projected QBs, but his lower price allows to spend up elsewhere. Wilson has been very constant of late with FanDuel scores over the last four games ranging from 19.9 to 23.4 points for an average of 21.43 points.
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB, $8,600, 11.2%) is the second highest price QB on the slate and is projected to score 21.7 points on 4 for 4. At $900 cheaper, Wilson could put up a similar performance and projected at almost no ownership.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB, $7,600, 26%) completed 24 of 40 passes for 243 yards with four touchdowns and two INTs against the Panthers last week for a 26 point FanDuel performance. That is right near his average of 25.2 FanDuel points per game this year. Fitzpatrick faces a Redskins defense that ranked 13th against the pass with an average of 254.1 yards per game allowed. Washington allowed 15 passing TDs, tied for 15th worst. Fitzpatrick is in the early game slate.
RB Kareem Hunt (KC, $9,000, 44.7%) is again the must play of the week. Hunt’s price seems downright cheap considering his recent production and his matchup against the Cardinals pathetic run defense. Hunt has averaged 27.63 FanDuel points over the last four games, and there is every indication we are in for more of the same this week.
Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros spoke about Hunt’s matchup against the Cardinals in his weekly column The Primer.
“(Hunt) is going against a Cardinals defense that’s allowed five top-10 performances to running backs. The best part is that most of it has been on the ground, where Hunt does most of his damage. They’ve faced 236 carries (most in NFL), allowed 1,057 rushing yards (4th-most), and 10 rushing touchdowns (3rd-most).
There’s been just one game where they’ve held the opposing team of running backs to less than 24.5 PPR points (was the 49ers), and outside of the 49ers, they’ve allowed at least one running back to tally 16 PPR points in every game, which is typically good for a top-15 performance and a solid floor. Knowing their pass-defense is a strength, the Chiefs will likely lean on Hunt at home in a game they’re projected for 33.3 points.”
RB Melvin Gordon III (LAC, $8,900, 44%) could equal or exceed Hunt this week. The average projection for Gordon on FantasyPros and 4 for 4 is 22.25 FanDuel points, while Hunt’s average projection is 23.2 points. Gordan has also been very constant, and he has a great matchup against the Raiders. Gordon’s average over his last four performances is slightly better than Hunt with at 25.05 points. The Raiders look like they are falling apart.
Tagliere also weighed in on Gordon’s matchup against the Raiders.
“Gordon gets a rematch against the Raiders this week, which he tagged for 120 total yards and a touchdown back in Week 5. That was arguably the best the Raiders defense had played all year, as it was one of just two games this season where they’ve allowed less than 4.24 yards per carry to their opponent.
Since that time, they’ve allowed 491 yards on 94 carries (5.22 yards per carry) with three touchdowns to the Seahawks, Colts, and 49ers, three teams who have struggled to run the ball this year. Running backs have seen a league-high 50 red zone touches against the Raiders and Gordon has scored on nine of his 23 red zone touches, so it’d be wise to expect a multiple touchdown game from Gordon who is clearly an elite RB1 play.”
RB Dion Lewis (TEN, $5,800, 4.1%) has put up some impressive numbers over the last weeks with an 18.5 FanDuel score against the Chargers in Week 8, and then 20.2 points against a stout Dallas run defense last week. A large part of his recent production has come in the passing game. In the previous two weeks, he has 10 receptions for 124 yards and a TD. Lewis faces the Patriots who coincidentally allow on average to RBs in the passing game very close to the production Lewis has recently achieved. The Pats allow on average 6.6 receptions for 60.6 yards and 0.3 TDs to RBs a game this year.
RB Alvin Kamara (NO, $8,800, 24.2%) is back to being Kamara. He is coming off a monster game against the Rams where had 19 carries for 82 yards and two TDs, plus he caught four of five targets for 34 yards and a TD for 31.6 FanDuel Points. Kamara faces the Bengals who The Bengals who over the last six games have allowed 735 yards on 136 carries (5.40 yards per carry) with five TDs. There is always a concern that RB Mark Ingram (NO, $6,800, 0.8%) may take a TD or two away from Kamara, but there should be enough to go around in this game. Kamara is in our the early slate.
All three of our Main Slate WRs are featured this week Mike Woelert’s WR vs. CB weekly column at 4 for 4. Woelert had some fantastic picks last week, and the stats indicate he has found some more gems.
“Peters is another CB who’s struggled in coverage recently, and it didn’t get any better last week,” according to Woelert. “He was targeted nine times and allowed 146 yards and a score. Peters is giving up 11.8 yards per target while Lockett is producing an aDOT (average depth of target) of 12.1 yards. Peters is making a play on the ball just 11.3 percent of the time he’s thrown at and is allowing 2.65 fantasy points per target.”
WR Josh Gordon (NE, $6,700, 23.3%) is coming off a 21.5 FanDuel performance against the Packers. With 23 targets over the last three games, Gordon’s usage and production indicate that he is rapidly becoming a critical part of the Patriots offense. Gordan will likely continue to perform well this week with a great matchup against Titans CB Malcolm Butler.
“Depending on which dictionary you own, if you look up the definition of toast, you might see Malcolm Butler‘s picture,” Woelert wrote. “Butler was responsible for two more touchdowns in Week 9 and has allowed seven total this season. He’s going to have a hard time matching up with Gordon this week. Butler is giving up a 69 percent catch rate and 16.3 yards per reception, resulting in 2.74 fantasy points per target.”
WR Donte Moncrief (JAC, $5,500, 4%) is facing his former team in the Colts and has appeared in several articles this week as a value play. Moncrief has become an integral part of the Jaguars offense with 34 targets over the last four weeks. Moncrief has a favorable matchup against CB Nate Hairston.
“Hairston has allowed three touchdowns, resulting in 2.32 fantasy points per target,” according to Woellert.
Tagliere also shared his thoughts on Moncrief. “His 32.7 percent of targeted air yards ranks top-20 and is ahead of guys like Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas. He’s also totaled at least four catches and 54 yards in four of the last five games, so he’s shown a decent floor despite Bortles’ struggles.
The Colts don’t have a single cornerback who’s been shut-down, but they’ve also limited big plays this year, allowing just 23 plays over 20 yards, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and it’s also where Moncrief has done most of his damage.”
WR Marvin Jones (DET, $6,200, 10%) is now the clear number one WR in Detroit. Jones has been targeted 18 times in the last two games and caught 13 passes for 183 yards and two TDs. The Bears have a formidable run defense that has allowed no rushing TDs. That means Detroit will need to pass and Jones should be a red zone target. Jones is in the early slate.
WR Tyler Boyd (CIN, $7,800, 26.2%) is set to be the number one WR with WR. A.J. Green (toe) out. Boyd faces a Saints defense that is second-worst against pass having allowed an average of 311.4 passing yards a game. Boyd also has a great matchup against CB P.J. Williams. “Williams has been burned for five scores over 35 targets and is yielding 2.54 fantasy points per target,” according to Woellert. Boyd is in the early slate.
WR Adam Humphries (TB, $5,700, 1.8%) benefited greatly from the return of Fitzpatrick to under center. The Fitzpatrick to Humphries connection last week generated eight receptions for 82 yards and two TDs. Humphries does have a fairly tough matchup against CB Fabian Moreau who has allowed just 1.12 fantasy point per target. However, we still value with this cheap stack. Humphries is in the early slate.
TE Jack Doyle (IND, $5,600, 5.7%) had been out with a hip injury since Week 2. Doyle came back with strong last week against the Raiders when he caught six of seven targets for 70 yards and a TD for 16 FanDuel points. There is some concern in that he will be sharing the TE duty with Eric Ebron, but we believe there is a good chance Doyle will see plenty of targets.
TE David Njoku (CLE, $5,400, 15.7%) is the fourth highest projected TE on FantasyPros and seventh highest at 4 for 4 with a 9.4 point projection average. Njoku is a key weapon in the Browns offense. Njoku has 52 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games. The Falcons pass defense is poor, but have allowed only three TDs to the position.
The Falcons have allowed 10.4 FanDuel points a game, according to Pro Football Reference. Njoku appears to offer a solid floor at a low price and may score a TD for a big day. Njoku (knee) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice this week. Najuku is in the early slate.
TE Eric Ebron (IND, $5,400, 0.4%) is still the third-highest target average of all TEs at 7.8 per game. He is the same price as Najuku and provides a pivot if Najuku doesn’t play. Ebron will be used in the morning slate to limit exposure to Najuku.
The Kansas City Chiefs ($4,600, 17%) are at home against the struggling Cardinals. The Chiefs defense has averages 9.3 FanDuel points over the last three weeks and is a top-three projected defense on both FantasyPros and 4 for 4 this week.
The Buffalo Bills defense ($3,700) surprisingly has the third-best pass defense with an average of 212 passing yards a game. They face a Jets offense who are the fifth-worst getting the ball down the field with only 200.6 passing yards a game. The Jets will also have backup QB Josh McCown (NYJ, $6,000, 0.2%) who is limited on weapons. Jets WR Robbie Anderson is doubtful to play, and WR Quincy Enuwa (ankle) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. The Bills defense is in the early slate.
Dan McLellan’s Main Slate and Sunday Million Lineup:
Dan McLellan’s Early 1:00 PM EST Only Lineup:
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