College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff: Unbeaten Teams That Have the Best Chance

After six weeks of college football and through all the FBS teams in Division 1, only 11 teams are still undefeated. Eight of the teams are in the Power 5 conferences, and three are in the American Athletic Conference. Of these 11 teams, only a few are contenders, and the rest are pretenders. These are the teams who have the best chance at getting to the College Football Playoff and are the real contenders. Then the pretenders will be named and potential losses they may suffer.

College Football Playoff Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)

Alabama is favored by at least 80 percent in each of its remaining games. The Crimson Tide could drop any one of their six remaining games and still have at least a 63 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Alabama is in a class of its own with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. His QBR of 98.5 in six games is the highest of all quarterbacks in college football this season, and he hasn’t even taken a fourth quarter snap. The Tide’s only weakness is the strength of schedule, and that still isn’t enough to derail the Tide. The dominance of this Alabama team will be enough to get them in the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide would need to be upset twice not to get in.

Prediction: (12-0) SEC Championship vs Georgia
(13-0) Win In The SEC Title, Takes The #1 Seed In The College Football Playoff.

Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)

The Buckeyes could lose any of the final six games and still have at least a 67 percent chance to get in the playoffs. Ohio State has at least a 71 percent chance to win each remaining game. Even though the Big 10 champion has been left out of the playoff the last two years, Ohio State is in a better position this year. They won against Penn State at Happy Valley, didn’t have a hangover, beat a tough Indiana, and before both these games won against TCU. This Ohio State team is more efficient than most seasons, ranked fifth in offensive efficiency. They are led by quarterback Dwayne Haskins who has 25 touchdowns to four interceptions. The Buckeyes need to control their destiny and stay unbeaten to get in the College Football Playoff. Being a one-loss Big 10 champion still won’t be enough.

Prediction: (12-0) Big 10 Championship vs. Wisconsin
(13-0) Win The Big 10 Title, Takes #2 Seed In The College Football Playoff.

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Clemson Tigers (6-0)

Clemson has the best chance to finish 13-0 of any team in the FBS at 46.5 percent. If Clemson finishes unbeaten, they have a 91.3 percent chance to make the playoff. They also would have a 24.3 percent chance to win the national championship. The Tigers have three true road wins against Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest. All teams that are .500 or better will impress the College Football Playoff committee. Clemson is leading the country in defensive efficiency and the offense led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence is exciting as well. Clemson must go undefeated to get in because the ACC isn’t as strong as previous seasons. NC State on October 20th is the only threat to the Tigers College Football Playoff hopes. Clemson controls their destiny to an extent as long as they keep winning and the teams they beat look good after Clemson plays them.

Prediction: (12-0) ACC Championship vs. Miami
(13-0) Win The ACC Title, Takes The #3 See In The College Football Playoff.

Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)

The Bulldogs are entering a four-game stretch that is the sixth toughest in FBS this season. They could afford to lose one game, but not two this season. If both Georgia and Alabama are 12-0 entering the SEC Championship game, there’s a 64 percent chance both teams will make the College Football Playoff. Georgia has looked dominant, but no wins against currently ranked teams. Saturday at LSU is the first chance to make a statement. Georgia has two road wins against South Carolina and Missouri. Georgia ranks second in defensive efficiency and fourth in offensive efficiency. The bottom line is we could see two SEC teams in the playoff again this season.

Prediction: (12-0) SEC Championship vs. Alabama
(12-1) Loss In The SEC Title Game, Committee Decision For The #4 Seed Team Between Georgia and Notre Dame.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0)

Notre Dame has a 70 percent chance to win each of their six remaining games. If the Irish run the table, they have a 95.9 percent chance to reach the playoff. If Notre Dame loses the last regular season game to USC, their chances will drop to 59.5 percent. The Irish are winning big games with Ian Book at quarterback, and it’s unlikely an undefeated Notre Dame would be left out of the top four. They need to go 12-0 and have Georgia lose to Alabama in the SEC title game. If Notre Dame drops one game, the committee might leave them out.

Prediction: (11-1) Loss in the last game against USC.
(11-1) No Playoff, New Year’s Six Bowl appearance.

The Pretenders

West Virginia, NC State, Colorado, UCF, South Florida, and Cincinnati are all pretenders. No offense to any of these teams, but their playoff chances are slim to none. If any of these six teams win the remainder of their games, they still won’t get the invite to the College Football Playoff.

Predictions:

West Virginia (10-2) Losses to Texas and Oklahoma
NC State (11-1) Loss to Clemson
Colorado (10-2) Losses to USC and Washington
UCF (11-1) Loss to South Florida
South Florida (11-1) Loss to Cincinnati
Cincinnati (11-1) Loss to UCF

The College Football Playoff picture is set up to be another classic season finale. The way I have it playing out is like most other years. The big names are in, and the dark horses are out. The final four, in my opinion, is shaping up to be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia or Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame. Anyway this season goes, the College Football Playoff is going to be a classic, and we may have an undefeated national champion.

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