DFS: Week 1, Past Performances Say Play Antonio Brown in the Rain
The weather forecast for Cleveland on Sunday is for rain and 15-20 MPH wind. This made us concerned about playing WR Antonio Brown (PIT, $9,000 on FanDuel) for DFS. We are no longer concerned after we researched Brown’s past performances in the rain.
Brown is currently the highest projected WR on FantasyPros (21.0).
The second highest project WR is DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800, 15.8) with 5.2 points fewer than Brown. That’s almost a full TD.
The big reason for the dramatic discrepancy is Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell is not going to play due to a contract dispute. However, Brown is expected to have a higher workload with the absence of Bell.
But will the rain diminish those number?
A look at Brown’s past performances in the rain suggests he will meet or beat his lofty projections.
To start with, on October 2nd, 2016 was a night game against the Chiefs in the rain. Brown caught four of five targets for 64 yards and two TDs. His fantasy score was 20.4 points.
Then on September 10, 2015, the Steelers traveled to New England and played a night game in light rain. Brown caught nine of 11 targets for 133 yards and a TD. His fantasy score was 23.8 points.
Finally, on November 17, 2013, the Steelers hosted the Lions in the rain. Brown caught seven of 13 targets for 147 yards for two TDs for a remarkable 31.2 fantasy score.
In all three games, the temperature was similar to the high 50s to low 60s forecasted for Sunday. Brown’s average fantasy score in those games was 25.1 points, and the low of 20.4 is close to the 21 points that fantasy sites project him for Sunday.
Conclusion: Play Brown with confidence. You might even have a lower ownership edge because of the rain.
For our complete DFS look at Sunday, read: DFS: FanDuel Week 1 Deep Dive, Build a Lineup Full of Value