FanDuel DFS Advice for the Super Bowl: Use Brady and Foles
The Super Bowl is upon us and with it the call to play NFL DFS until August. Last week, we provided a winning Pro Bowl lineup to FanDuel’s new single-game five-player format that allows you to assign one player to receive a double score. For the Super Bowl, playing both QBs Tom Brady and Nick Foles appears to be a solid strategy.
For the Pro Bowl article, we discussed why it was important to ignore the high-priced QBs and RBs for them and build a lineup only WRs and TEs. While the lineup that we provided scored a paltry 27.4 points it still cashed in a $5 GPP.
That result shows many were on the QBs and RBs and they did not deliver. It also shows every point really counts in this type of format.
The green cash line for the Super Bowl should be significantly higher than it was in the Pro Bowl. Every player is expected to play a full game, and weather will not be a factor. Nevertheless, it will likely be important to take advantage of the obvious points for a solid base and build from there.
There are several indications this could be a high scoring back and forth affair. The initial over/under was set at 48 with Patriots as the favorite by 4.5 points. The two teams tied for a league-high point differential of +162.
With the high over/under, FantasyPros.com projects the two QBs to be the highest fantasy scorers of the game. FanDuel projects Brady ($17,000, NE) for 18.7 points and Foles ($13,500, PHI) projects for 16.5 points.
The majority of lineups on FanDuel will likely have Brady or Foles because using one QB is what players are accustomed to doing. However, there is nothing in the rules that say we can’t use both. We simply need to build a lineup with any five players. Think of the advantage you will have the two QBs do provide the most points and both are in your lineup.
Another edge can be found by using a kicker because they will likely be low owned, yet are cheap and are projected to be great value plays. The use of a kicker provides a virtual guarantee of not putting up a zero in a low-priced option, and in a high scoring game, a kicker could easily provide 10-15+ points.
When choosing between Ks Stephen Gostkowski (NE, $9,500) and Jake Elliott ($8,500, PHI) it’s important to keep in mind FanDuel scores four points for field goals of 40+ yards as opposed to three points for field goals under 40 yards.
Of the two kickers, Gostkowski will likely have a higher ownership because he is simply more well-known and often used by DFS players. Elliott, however, has been more accurate from long-range and had more attempts. Including the postseason, Gostkowski made 81% of kicks from 40+yards (nine of 12 from 40-49 yards, and four of four from 50+). Elliot made 90% of kicks from 40+ yards (12 of 13 from 40-49 yards, and six of seven from 50+). Elliott appears to be the better choice.
The use of Elliott also creates for some salary space for another high-priced player.
FantsyPros projects RB Dion Lewis ($13,000, NE) to be the third highest fantasy scorer with 13.1 points. In the playoffs, Lewis has averaged eight receptions for 55 yards and 48 rushing yards. That translates to 14.3 points, so his projection may be low. The receptions also give you a nice stack with Brady.
With Brady, Foles, Lewis, and Elliott you have the top three projected scorers. Plus a kicker that has the potential to put up significant points in a dome.
This leaves $8,000 on the table to round out your roster with a player that could provide a huge upside. WR Torrey Smith (PHI) is the only $8,000 player on the slate and he provides that potential. Smith likely will not catch a ton of balls, but he has the potential for a 50 yard TD. In a game with nothing to lose and everything to gain by the underdog Eagles, look for Foles to take a couple of shots with Smith. This lineup could still cash in a GPP even if Smith doesn’t produce. That is because the other four players are highly likely to put significant fantasy points on the board.
With the lineup complete, who should you assign to receive double points, Brady or Foles?
While Brady is projected to earn a few points more than Foles, I’m going to designate Foles for the double point slot.
The Patriots pass defense has been porous all year. They have allowed a third-worst 251.2 yards a game through the air. New England also appears to have better weapons for to score rushing TDs. The Patriots scored 17 rushing TDs during the regular season while the Eagles only had nine. This means the Eagles TDs are more likely in compared to the Patriots to come from the pass than a rush.
Dan’s Super Bowl Lineup
QB Tom Brady
RB Dion Lewis
K Jake Elliott
WR Torrey Smith
QB Nick Foles X 2