UCF Knights vs Alabama Crimson Tide

UCF Knights vs Alabama Crimson Tide: Who would win and why? Three keys to UCF winning.


Well by now we all know that the Alabama Crimson Tide has “won” the National Title of Invited Universities.  We also know that the UCF Knights finished ranked #1 in one of the major polls the Colley Rankings. In addition, they received 4 first-place votes out of the 61 in the AP poll. So that leaves them with the opportunity to claim themselves Co-National Champs with Alabama. So what would you do about it, most people would want it settled on the field in a winner take all championship match. The team that wins gets to declare themselves the true National Champs.  So if this hypothetical game were to be played who would win and why?

NCAA Game Sim

So www.ncaagamesim.com is a website that specializes in computer simulation for college football and basketball. It will take all the factors into consideration and then runs the game based on how it would play out. I ran the simulation of the Alabama Crimson Tide vs the UCF Knights on a neutral field 442 times. UCF won 111 times or 25% of the time. 9 of the 442 games went to overtime (2%). Out of the 111 times, UCF won 23 of those by more than 20 Points. What does this show you? Just that even if they were a 3-1 underdog there is still a possibility for the UCF Knights to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide and at a 25% clip it’s better than nothing.

Keys to Victory for the Knights

  1. McKenzie Milton in most of the sims UCF won the storyline was the same Milton had taken care of the ball.  The one simulation I used for stats was a game UCF won Milton went 21-39 283 yards 3 TDs with no picks. He added 41 yards on the ground in 6 carries. If Milton takes care of the ball then the Knights will be able to grab a victory.
  2. Defense needs to contain Jalen Hurts on the ground.  As we seen in the National Championship Game the QB on Alabama’s roster who can beat you with their arm is Tua Tagovailoa. So if you can force Jalen Hurt to throw the ball you will be in good shape.
  3. Special Teams, by now we all know that Mike Hughes was a Special player this year for the Knights. This more refers to the kicking game and Matthew Wright who missed two field goals against Auburn. He would need to improve as you don’t give a team like Alabama 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

Overall Feeling

If the Knights were able to carry out those 3 Keys I could see them beating Alabama.  But then again this was just a computer sim and not the real thing. It’s the best we can offer right now because of the system in place.  It’s a shame but Co-National Champs will be the best they could wish for.

 

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