FanDuel NFL Week 13 Picks: Cheap RBs, Pay for WRs
In week 13 of the NFL DFS season, we’ll look to build on our recent success. Last week on our WBZMedia pre-game show, the team at DFS Fantasy Fore Play built a FanDuel Sunday Million lineup that finished in the top 1%, which was only slightly higher than our lineup the previous week.
The formula for success last week was to focus on spending up at QB and WRs while finding cheaper quality RBs. This could very well be the way to go again this week, as there are several low-priced RBs who are facing poor run defenses.
QB Philip Rivers (LAC, $8,000) has the best matchup of the upper tear QBs. He has averaged two TDs a game for the last eight games, and is coming off a three TD performance against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving where he also threw for 434 yards and scored 28.86 FanDuel points. The Browns have allowed a second most 22 passing TDs this season, according to fantsy.nfl.com.
QB Caron Wentz (PHI, $8,000) has been a model of consistency. He leads the NFL with 28 passing TDs. On the road against Seattle will likely be a challenge, but the Seahawks defense is missing key players and are not the same as they were Sunday night could be a statement game for Wentz and the Eagles.
QB Bret Hundley (GB, $6,400) appeared to turn a page on Sunday night as he threw for 245 and three TDs in route to scoring 22.4 FanDuel points against the Steelers. The week he faces the Buccaneers who have given up the most passing yards (1,207) of any defense over the last four weeks. Playing Hundley will allow you to load up elsewhere.
RB Todd Gurley (LAR, $8,800) is a worthy play every week because of his consistency. However, Gurley faces the Cardinals who have given up 258 rushing yards and 3 TDs (two rushing, one receiving) in the last four games.
Many other high end RBs have similar poor matchups this week. I’m looking to gamble on some cheap RBs in great situations, and stack my lineups with top-tier WRs.
RB Dion Lewis (NE, $6,300) may share the workload with Rex Burkhead (NE, $5,900), but he has the best matchup any RB. Over the last four weeks, the Bills have allowed an astonishing 621rushing yards, 114 more than anyone else. In those games, Buffalo has also surrendered nine rushing TDs, four more than anyone else. Last week, Lewis had 15 carries for 112 yards. Burkhead had two TDs (one rushing, one receiving) is also a worthy play. Of Lewis and Burkhead, I like Lewis because he may have more opportunities to break off a big run for a score.
RB Kenyan Drake (MIA, $5,800) maybe the steel of the week. If Damien Williams (MIA, $5,500) doesn’t play (shoulder), Drake becomes the lead back and will likely see over 20 touches against Denver. Over the last four weeks, the Broncos are the worst for giving up nine (five rushing, four rushing) TDs to RBs. Denver has also allowed 441 rushing yards in that span.
RB Marshawn Lynch (OAK, $6,200) is another RB in place for a great value play. Over the last three weeks, Lynch has averaged 15.33 FanDuel points. The Raiders offense maybe missing both
WRs Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension). This should mean more reps for Lynch against the Giants who benched QB Eli Manning. If QB Geno Smith (NYG, $6,000) can’t move the ball for New York, then the Raiders should see good field position throughout the game. The Giants have given a fourth worst 1,191 rushing yards on the season.
The goal will be use at least two of the projected top four WRs: Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, or DeAndre Hopkins. When using QBs Wentz or Hundley, you should consider stacking them with a WR from their team.
WR Mike Evans (TB, $7,500) should benefit greatly with the return of QB Jameis Winston (TB, $7,300). Winston is coming off a shoulder injury, but returned to full practice on Wednesday. Even without Winston, Evans was still heavily targeted and put up quality performances. He has just failed to reach the end zone in the last four games. There is a good chance that changes this week against the Packers who have allowed a league high seven receiving TDs in the last four games.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, $8,000) has score 14.6 to 17.6 FanDuel points in each of the last four games. Hopkins faces the Titans who In period have allowed a third worst 706 receiving yards, and tied for the second worst six receiving TDs.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC, $8,100) has 23 catches for 331 yards and three TDs in the last two games. Allen faces the Browns’ defense which has played well against WRs over the last month when they have only given up 423 yards and two receiving TDs to WRs. Nevertheless, Allen will be heavily targeted by Rivers.
WR Julio Jones (ATL, $8,600) had a MONSTER game last week when he scored 44.8 FanDuel with 12 receptions for 253 yards and two TDs against the Buccaneers . Don’t expect the same output this week against Viking who have only allowed three TDs to WRs in the last four games, but Jones will still likely get his opportunities.
WR Devante Adams (GB, $6,500) has become remarkably consistent as Hundley’s number one WR. Adams has scored 17.5, 16.6, and 16.7 FanDuel points in the last three weeks . Adams faces the Buccaneers who have given up a league high 918 to WRs in the last four weeks, and a second worst six TDs. A Adams/Hundley stack allows for a RB like Gurley and two top WRs.
WR Alshon Jeffery (PHI, $7,300) has been on fire in the last month with an average of 17.25 FanDuel points scored per game in the last four. He faces a tough Seattle defense that has only allowed one TD to a WR in that period, but in a statement game, look for Wentz to continue to throw his way.
TE Hunter Henry (LAC, $5,400) caught all five of his targets for 76 yards and a TD last week. He could be on par for similar production this week against the Browns who have been among the least effective at covering TEs all season. Cleveland has allowed a second worst nine TDs to TEs this season.
TE Julius Thomas (MIA, $5,200) has been a consistent contributor in the Dolphins offense. He caught five of six targets for 56 yards last week, and averaged 9.5 FanDuel points a game over the last four. Thomas faces the Denver defense which have given up a fifth worst 237 receiving yards to TEs over the last four games, and are towards the bottom by three TDs allowed.
McLellan’s NFL Week 13 Player Pool
Dion Lewis or Rex Burkhead