FanDuel NFL Week 10 Picks: Maybe too many options
The NFL week 10 DFS slate has a number of intriguing QB options. This, in turn, creates more choices all the way around to build solid lineups with different looks. I will likely play a few more lineups than have in the last few weeks. Hopefully, not too many!
Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB, $6,100) is in the same price range as a typical backup QB getting an opportunity to start but is different in the respect that he is had success in the NFL. His price tag could have something to do with the announcement that Fitzpatrick would start did not come until after FanDuel had set their prices for the week. Fitzpatrick is in a plus matchup against the Jets who have given up a ninth most 22.74 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs, according to fantasy.nfl.com. Fitzpatrick will be missing elite WR Mike Evans (suspension), but that could create more opportunities for TE Cameron Brate (TB, $5,700). A cheap Fitzpatrick/Brate stack will allow you to load up virtually everywhere else.
QB Mathew Stafford (DET, $8,200) at home against the lowly Browns could have a huge day. Stafford has scored more FanDuel points than the week before for four straight weeks. On Monday, he scored 22.44 points against the Packers in Green Bay. The Browns are actually surprisingly decent against QB having allowed an average of 18.73 FPPG. Stafford, however, could reasonably score over 20 FanDuel points on Sunday.
QB Matt Ryan (ATL, $7,700) is cheap based on production. At this price, he would have exceeded a 2x value in six of the eight games he has played this year, and four of those times he would have 2.5X or better value. This is a home game against Cowboys, so presumably, that would be an advantage for Ryan. However, there is an odd anomaly in Ryan’s production, in that this year he has consistently played better on the road. The Cowboys have given up an 8th most 22.74 FPPG fantasy points to QBs.
QB Eli Manning (NYG, $6,700) maybe be the sneakiest play on the board. He has not been consistent but has put up some big fantasy days against poor pass defenses. In weeks three and four he put up 24.64 and 27.72 FanDuel points against the Eagles and Buccaneers, respectively. Then his WR corps got decimated in week 5. With WR Sterling Sheppard back in the mix, Manning scored 13.8 points against a Rams moderate pass defense. This week the Giants play the 49ers who have given up a 3rd most FPPG to QBs at 19.63 and are tied for second-most passing TDs allowed at 16.
QB Jared Goff (LAR, $8,200) is a bit expensive but is coming off a monster week by exploiting the Giants poor pass defense for 28.4 FanDuel points. Goff has consistently performed well this year against poor pass defenses. The week prior, he scored 19.7 points against the Cardinals, and in week 3 he scored 23.58 points against the 49ers. This week Goff plays the Texans who have given up a 4th most FPPG to QBs at 19.34, and are tied for second-most passing TDs allowed at 16.
I will largely be sticking to the mid to higher priced RBs. Hopefully, the right pairing of solid RBs will matchup with a QB that greatly exceeds value. RB Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, $8,900) is officially suspended (I know beyond doubt Donald Trump criminally conspired with Russia. I believe, but will not be 100% positive Elliott is suspended until kickoff.) after losing his 2nd circuit injunction on Thursday. That makes RB Alfred Morris (DAL, $5,400) tempting, but with so many good RBs in play, I will avoid Morris and stick with more known commodities.
RB Le’Veon Bell (PIT, $9,400) should be the chalkiest plays of the week, and for good reason. Bell has the best matchup of any of the stud RBs. The Colts have given up a league-high eight rushing TDs and are tied for the league high with 10 total TDs to RBs. Indianapolis has allowed the 3rd most 21.31 FPPG to RBs.
RB Jordan Howard (CHI, $7,200) is not at the elite level but is an above average player in a great matchup. The Packers have given up a second most nine (6 rushing, 3 receiving) TDs to RBs, and a fourth highest 20.74 FPPG to RBs.
RB Mark Ingram (NO, $6,900) still appears for this matchup to be a better value than teammate RB Alvin Kamara (NO, $7,000), despite Kamara scoring 28.2 FanDuel points last week. Ingram is receiving about 50% more carries than Kamara and is more likely to get the ball in goal-line situations. The Bills have given up seven TDs to RBs this season, six have been on the ground. With that said, Kamara is also a reasonable play, as his role appears to be growing.
RB Carlos Hyde (SF, $6,700) is another low to mid-priced RB that gets a lot of work and is in a good matchup. The Giants have given up a ninth most 19.01 FPPG to RBs, and six total TDs (four rushing, two receiving)
RB Orleans Darkwa (NYG, $5,700) is a solid value play. He has the best matchup of any RB. The 49ers have given up a league-high 24.48 FPPG to TBs, and 10 total TDs (6 rushing, four receiving). Darkwa has averaged over 17 total touches over through the last three games. If you’re thinking about stacking RB Le’Veon Bell with WR Antonio Brown, Darkwa’s price could be a great fit for that lineup.
Antonio Brown (PIT, $9,300) is a very good, but not fantastic play this week. Brown has the chance to make value without getting a TD. The Colts have given up the second most receiving yards at 1,661. That’s just two yards less than the Chiefs who have the worst pass defense at 1,663. Therefore, it’s conceivable that Brown has another eight or greater catch game for 150 plus yards. The Colts, however, have only allowed seven receiving TDs, so don’t count on Brown reaching the end zone.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT, $6,500) is a much cheaper way to exploit the Colts pass defense. Smith-Schuster is coming off a monster game before the bye when caught seven passes on 10 targets for 193 yards and a TD, as he scored 28.8 FanDuel points. If Brown is not in my lineup, I will likely have Smith Schuster.
WR Demaryius Thomas (DEN, $6,800) or Emanuel Sanders (DEN, $6,400) have a great matchup in the Patriots who have given up 25.89 FPPG to WRs, the most on the slate. Sanders performed better than Thomas in the beginning of the season, but Thomas has come on as of late. Thomas scored 17 FanDuel points last week. Both Thomas (hamstring) and Sanders (ankle) are questionable, so check the inactive list on Sunday morning.
WR Marvin Jones (DET, $6,400) has been on fire over the last three weeks. Jones has scored 18.6, 15.8, and 26.2 FanDuel points, respectively. He has also scored three TDs in those games. The Browns are slightly above average against WRs, having allowed 18.72 FPPG and eight TDs.
WR Sterling Sheppard (NYG, $5,700) remains cheap for a number one receiver. Sheppard caught five of nine targets for 70 yards last week. The 49ers are average against WRs having allowed 21.20 FPPG and nine TDs.
TE Cameron Brate (TB, $5,700) I’m stacking with Fitzpatrick because of a likely increased workload with WR Mike Evans (suspended) out.
TE Kyle Rudolph (MIN, $5,400) should be involved against the Redskins who have given up a league-high 637 receiving yards to TEs.
TE Jack Doyle (IND, $6,100) is averaging over eight receptions a game over the last four games and two TDs in that timeframe. Expectations for a huge game against the Steelers should be muted as allowed a fifth best 5.95 FPPG to TEs and only two TDs. Nevertheless, Doyle is very much a part of the Colts offense and will likely give you some fantasy points at a reasonable price.
TE Garrett Celek (SF, $4,500) Celek will get the start at tight end this Sunday against the Giants in place of the injured George Kittle (leg). The Giants have given up nine TDs and 13.73 FPPG to TEs, both a league high. At the basement price, Celek is certainly worth the play in a GPP.
McLellan’s Week 9 FanDuel Player Pool
Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara (prefer Ingram over Kamara)
Demaryius Thomas or Emanuel Sanders