FanDuel NFL Picks: Users Should Stack Jay Cutler, Jarvis Landry in Week 4
It’s time to decide your FanDuel NFL picks for Week 4. A stack of Dolphins QB Jay Cutler and WR Jarvis Landry in the slate of games may give you a high-performance duo at extremely low ownership. Add in their reasonably low price which will enable you to fill the rest of your roster with quality players, and you could have the perfect ingredients to win a GPP.
A great strategy for playing the Thu-Mon slate is to completely fade the Thursday game. In general, Thursday games tend to be low scoring, while the ownership for star players trends higher than of the main slate.
Low scoring flat games could be the cause of the shortened week in most circumstances (exception, coming off a bye week) for players.
Star players owned at higher percentages are most likely caused by the fantasy player’s desire to have something to pull for during the game. “If I am going to watch the game, and I’m playing the slate, then I want something to cheer for,” a DFS player might say to themselves. Or, maybe they say, “If this player(s) goes off, then I don’t want to regret not playing them.”
The problem with that logic is a winning DFS lineup are often comprised of high-performing players that are owned at a low percentage. Playing higher than average owned players doesn’t guarantee a win even if they exceed expectations.
For example, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ($9,100, the highest price of any player this week on FanDuel) and WR Jordy Nelson ($8,400, tied for third highest price WR) may be owned as high as the 20-30% range if they were in the main slate. Because they are playing on Thursday, their ownership could be 10% or higher.
If they do go off, you not guaranteed that you are going to cash because a good percentage of the field will also own them. Plus, because of their high cost, you will likely find it difficult to fill out the rest of your lineup with quality players.
Now imagine Rodgers and Nelson underperform and you didn’t use them. You would have a huge advantage on the rest of the field who played them.
Underperforming for a Rodgers/Nelson stack would be a combined score of 35 points, or 2 x 17.5. They are both coming off huge games, so is this plausible?
The answer is a resounding YES!
The Bears defense is above average at preventing fantasy points to QBs (14.07 per game, 11th best) and average to WRs (19.27 per game, 14th best), according to fantasy.nfl.com. The Bears defense also just came out of a very good outing against Steelers dynamic offense in a game that they won 23-17 in OT.
This game’s over/under is 45.5 points with the Packers expected to score 26 points. Mix in the Thursday night factor, it’s reasonable to anticipate that Rodgers and Nelson could have a good night, but fail to meet or dramatically exceed their combined value.
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By fading the whole game and not playing Rodgers/Nelson, even if they do rack up the points, you will still have a full complement of quality players that can make up the difference. This is especially true if you find great value at a different QB/WR stack.
Cutler ($7,300) and Landry ($6,800) have the potential to provide value and performance at low ownership. Their combed cost is $14,100, so for them to make value they would need to score a total of 28.2 fantasy points against the Saints pours defense in London.
This is where it gets good.
New Orleans gives up the second most fantasy points to QBs (21.76 per game) and the sixth most to WRs (25.00 per game). The Saints defense has allowed an average 311 passing YPG, and have surrendered six passing TDs (two per game).
Despite all of this, the ownership percentage of Cutler and Landry could be low — EXTREMELY LOW!
Last week on FantsyPros.com, Panthers QB Cam Newton was projected at a 2% ownership against the Saints in the main slate.
Cutler could see an even lower ownership this week. There is less information on him than other QBs because he has only played in two games. Many will have a recency bias on the entire Dolphin offense because they surprisingly got shut out by the Jets last week. The early 9:30 AM EST kickoff will put this game out of many DFS players minds who are focused on the main slate players to complete their lineups, for which this game is not included.
Nevertheless, it’s reasonable that Cutler will meet or exceed 14.6 points for his share of value. Even with the shutout last week and only playing in two games, he has thrown for 2 TDS and averaged 225 passing YPG.
The over/under for the game is a league-high 49.5 points with the Dolphins expectant to score 24 points, just two points less than the Packers. Vegas, therefore, believe Cutler has the potential throw a couple of TDs. If he does, he will likely far exceed value.
Landry has been targeted a league-high 13 times per game. If Cutler does throw a TD or two, there is a good chance one will go to Landry and he will exceed value.
Together the duo has the potential dramatically exceed value and with low ownership, you will have a huge edge on the competition.
Even if Cutler/Landry fall a little short of value, you will have an extra $3,400 to fill out the rest of your roster with quality players than if you had played Rodgers/Nelson.