McLellan’s NFL DFS Player Pool for Week 3 2017
The challenge in building this week’s player pool was there are not a ton of matchups between players who are leading the fantasy world and are facing a defense that struggles against their position, but I’ll do my best to provide you with as much information as possible in McLellan’s NFL DFS Player Pool for Week 3. When it’s that obvious, however it leads to heavy ownership of a few star players. With research, this week’s player pool consistent of a balanced diverse price range of standouts who are heavily utilized and are in good positions to perform well.
The QBs and RBs are among or near the upper fantasy tier, and are in matchups that should allow them to put up good numbers. Ten QBs and RBs were considered. Each category was narrowed to four by calculating their Average Projected Fantasy Score (APFS).
The APFS is simply an average of a player’s performance with the opposing defense for each of the stats that Fanduel scores.
WRs are first selected by the amount of targets they are receiving and then narrowed by the matchup they face. Ideally, each QB can be stacked with at least one WR from the same team.
The only TE I will be using in the main slate is Jack Doyle ($5,300 on Fan Duel). Doyle offers a low price tag, likely low ownership, and has the potential of a high floor as he will surely be heavily targeted. Doyle has developed into a safety valve for whoever is the QB for Indianapolis. He was targeted eight times in Week 2 and caught every ball thrown at him to lead the Colts with 78 yards receiving.
This week the Colts will play the Browns who were arguably the worst at defending against TEs in 2016 and have started 2017 on that same trend. According to NFL.com, in 2017, Cleveland is second worst in average fantasy points allowed to TEs (14.20), tied for the most TDs allowed (2), and the worst at Red Zone Touches (4), Red Zone Targets (5), and Red Zone G2G (4).
TE Jesse James racked up 6 receptions, 41 yards and 2 TDs against the Browns in Week 1. Last week, TE Benjamin Watson went off for 8 catches, 91 yards and a TD.
There is a good chance Doyle will be targeted in the end zone. To win a GPP, you don’t need a ton of low-priced and low owned players to go off. You just need one with the rest of your team built of good players in good positions that perform well. I’m building around Doyle this week. If Doyle can get in the range six receptions for 60 yards and one TD, he could turn in a 3-to-4 times value performance.
Popular high-priced QBs in perceived good matchups that will likely be heaving owned this week are Aaron Rodgers ($9,300), and Ben Roethlisberger ($8,000).
I’m fading both. Not because I don’t believe that they will perform well, but because of their particular situation I perceive it’s doubtful that will truly have an outstanding game compared to price. Rodgers is having some O-line issues. Roethlisberger has historically underperformed on the road.
I will be building five lineups around QBs Matt Stafford, Trevor Siemian, Derek Carr, and Philip Rivers and Cam Newton.
Newton ($8,100) is a late add. I wasn’t going to play Newton because he has as shoulder issue and hasn’t quite got it together so far this year. I expected high ownership on him and had put him in the category of Rodgers and Roethlisberger. That changed when FantasyPros released their prediction on player use and projected Newton at only 2% owned. That’s too low of owner ship to not take advantage of when considering he playing the Saints who have given up the most fantasy points to QBs this season. With that in mind, I stacked Newton with WR Kelvin Benjamin ($6,600) in a cheap GPP.
Stafford ($7,900, APFS 26.16) hasn’t lit it up in the air with a YPG average of 207, but he has thrown 6 TDs and Fanduel heavily weighs touchdowns. The Falcons have allowed 3 passing TDs. The O/U for the game is 50.5 with an implied score for Detroit of 24. Stafford will likely throw a few more TDs.
Siemian ($7,400, APFS 23.36) stats closely mirror Stafford. Siemian YPG average is 225 and has also thrown 6 TDs. The Bills have only allowed a paltry 177 YPG average to QBs, but have allowed 3 passing TDS. The O/U for this game is 40, tied for the lowest of the week which will likely assure a low ownership of Siemian. The Broncos, however, are predicted to score 22 points and chances are Siemian could throw a few more TDs.
Carr (8,500, APFS 22.82) 246 YPG average is higher than Stafford and Siemian, but he has thrown one less TD (5). The Redskins have allowed an average of 265 passing YPG and have also allowed 3 passing TDS. The O/U for the game a league high of 54.5 with Oakland expecting to score a whopping 29 points.
Compared to the Stafford and Siemian stats the O/U seems high, especially taking into account that Week 1 game between Oakland and Tennessee that was supposed to be barn burner and fizzled. Nevertheless, Carr has plenty of weapons and the Raiders offense can be explosive, so Carr is worth the play. Carr, however, will likely he heavily owned, so consider getting some lower owned players when building a lineup around him.
Rivers ($7,500, APFS 20.77) showed the potential of huge game throwing for 331 yards last week, but many drives fell short and he only threw 1 TD. In Week 1, Rivers threw for 192 yards, but had 3 TDs. Put the yards and TDs together and Rivers can have a huge game.
There is recent history to suggest he will do this against the Chiefs. Rivers and WR Keenan Allen were on fire in Week 1 of last season when the duo connected 6 times for 63 yards in the first half as the Chargers built a 24-3 lead as RB Melvin Gordon scored his first two career TDs. Allen then tore his ACL. The Chargers offense collapsed and Chiefs came back to win the game.
With Allen and a full complement of weapons, Rivers could have a big day against the Chiefs.
At RB I’ll be using two of three: Ty Montgomery ($7,200, APFS 23.95), Jay Ajayi ($8,200, APFS 20.98), and Melvin Gordon($7,600. 18.54). All three are heavily used and carried the ball at least 77% of the time last week.
Montgomery and Gordon are reasonably priced, and have decent matchups. Ajayi is on the expensive side, but he plays the Jets who have allowed an average of 185 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game.
Ajayi and Gordon both are currently questionable, but are expected to play. If one of them doesn’t suit, I will switch in Kareem Hunt ($8,300).
The WR position offers a wide range of salaries with players who are heavily targeted.
Antonio Brown ($9,000, 11 targets average) is worth paying up for. He is a model of consistency with 11 targets in both games played.
Keenan Allen ($7,200, 10 targets average) has also been just as constant with 10 targets in each of his first two games. Allen is a bargain at $1,800 less than Brown and averaging just one target less.
Jarvis Landry ($6,800, 15 targets average) has only played in one game, but seems ridiculously cheap considering he was targeted 15 times. It is tough to expect that many targets again this week, but it could happen considering Devante Parker may not play.
The lineup that I’m most excited about has Brown, Allen and Landry. Combined they provide an astonishing 12 targets per game average. The floor for points with these three is high and the ceiling is potentially astronomical.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,600, 6.6 targets average) vs. the porous Saints defense looks to be a great value. Newton just needs to get him the ball.
Also Using: Devante Adams ($6,800, 8.5 targets average ), and Demaryius Thomas ($7,100, 8 targets average).
WRs in Primetime Slate: Terrelle Pryor ($6,900, 7.5 targets average), Amari Cooper ($7,700, 9 targets average), and Michael Crabtree ($7,700, 6.5 targets average). It’s difficult to predict who will get the red zone looks between Crabtree and Cooper, but the Raiders offense runs through them so I will play both with TE Jared Cook to create a high probability that I will capitalize on all of Carr’s TD passes. I will then stack QB Kirk Cousins ($7,600, 16.54 APFS) with Pryor to try to capitalize on a predicted high scoring game.
Other WRs to consider: Jaron Brown ($4,500) and Rashard Higgins ($6,200) look to be great options at a basement price. After not being targeted in Week 1, both were targeted a whopping 11 times last week and that could continue.
McLellan’s Player Pool for NFL Week 3 2017
Kareem Hunt (substitute)
Terrelle Pryor (Primetime)
Amari Cooper (Primetime)
Michael Crabtree (Primetime)
Rishard Higgins (alternate option)
Jaron Brown (alternate option)
Jared Cook (Prime Time)